In the near future, fuel prices in Latvia are expected to remain at current levels with possible moderate fluctuations — either upward or downward, according to Ieva Ligere, Chair of the Board of the Latvian Fuel Traders Association, in a statement to LETA.
She explained that geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East — particularly rising tensions between Iran and Israel — always trigger nervousness in global oil markets, as the region is a critical hub for oil extraction and supply. Any instability there may spark concerns about supply security and lead to volatility in oil and fuel prices.
Ligere noted that by the end of the first week of the Iran-Israel conflict, oil prices had risen from USD 69 to USD 77 per barrel, amid fears that the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz might be closed. Investment banks speculated that such a move could drive oil prices up to USD 120 per barrel.
However, the situation changed after the U.S. announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, leading oil prices to fall again — to around USD 67 per barrel.
In Latvia, fuel prices are primarily influenced by the price of fuel products in the ARA (Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp) market
— the supply hub for gasoline, diesel, and biofuels in the Baltic region. As wholesale fuel prices fluctuate over several days, retail prices at petrol stations eventually follow suit.
Ligere emphasized several key factors currently shaping the market: decisions by oil-producing countries to raise or cut production, the pace of global economic growth — with slowdowns in China and other major markets reducing demand and easing price pressure — and geopolitical threats that affect oil extraction and logistics.
Currency fluctuations, especially the EUR/USD exchange rate, directly affect fuel prices in Europe. Seasonal trends also play a role: during the summer travel season, demand typically rises, potentially pushing prices up slightly.
Ligere concluded that fuel price forecasting always involves a high degree of uncertainty. Based on current data, summer demand may slightly push prices higher. However, if the situation in the Middle East remains relatively stable, major price shifts due to regional geopolitical events are not expected.
She also pointed out that the decisions of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will be a key factor influencing the market in the coming months.
As reported earlier, in Latvia, the average price of 95-octane gasoline rose by 0.1% during the week between the 17th of June and 23rd of June , while the average price of diesel fuel dropped by 0.1%, according to data from the European Commission.
During that week, the average price for 95-octane gasoline in Latvia was 1.534 euros per liter, while diesel fuel averaged 1.478 euros per liter.
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