The hottest topic in Latvia last week was the scandal surrounding the mishandling of the municipal election process and the system crash. President Edgars Rinkēvičs called it a failure, Prime Minister Evika Siliņa described it as a technical glitch, the Minister for Environmental Protection and Regional Development resigned, and the leader of “Latvia First” (LPV), Ainārs Šlesers, called for protests, claiming the election had been stolen. To assess the situation and identify the biggest surprise of the election, BNN spoke with political analyst and co-owner of the company “Mediju Tilts,” Filips Rajevskis.
According to Rajevskis, the biggest surprise of these municipal elections was the strong performance by “Sovereign Power” / “Young Latvians.” All other results more or less matched pre-election polling data.
“Sovereign Power/Young Latvians did appear in the polls, but the speed at which they gained support and the strength of their showing was unexpected. On a national scale, the big story is that local parties came out on top. That’s a very strong performance by regional parties,” Rajevskis said.
Asked about the performance of “Latvia First” and Ainārs Šlesers’ claims that the Riga elections were stolen — as well as his calls for public protest — the political analyst said it is hard to explain Šlesers’ erratic behavior.
“Of course, he’s disappointed with the results. He thought LPV’s results would be so strong that no coalition could be formed without him — that he would have the ‘golden ticket.’ But this time, a coalition can be formed without him, although I don’t think it will be a smooth process. What really caught him off guard was the strong showing by Sovereign Power/Young Latvians. I believe that’s the voter base he was hoping to win. Had LPV in Riga managed to capture all those votes, we’d see just how serious a player he is. Still, even then, the likelihood of remaining in opposition would have been high. The winner is not the one with the most votes, but the one who can build a coalition — and that hasn’t changed,” Rajevskis noted.
When asked what the resignation of Minister Inga Bērziņa over the technical problems and the forced resignation of Central Election Commission chair Kristīne Saulīte (following the ruling coalition’s agreement to recall her) says about political accountability and maturity, Rajevskis was skeptical.
“The election process is almost sacred, and any turmoil around it is taken very seriously by the public. That’s the main reason. But is this a turning point in terms of political accountability among officials? I don’t think so. Failures in something as critical as the election process sharpen public demand for responsibility.”
Responding to BNN’s remark that the technical issues offer fertile ground for challenging the vote count — as evidenced by 12 complaints submitted to the Central Election Commission — Rajevskis said: “Nothing has been stolen, and even in places where recounts are requested, the results are unlikely to change significantly. What’s left is just a bitter taste — an unpleasant aftertaste from all the scandals.”