In the event of a military conflict, the Rail Baltica railway line could be used to evacuate up to 100,000 people per day, according to a presentation by the Ministry of Transport (MoT) delivered Wednesday at a meeting of the Saeima’s Defence, Internal Affairs, and Corruption Prevention Committee.
The presentation noted that the capital costs for the first stage of the cross-border connection—from the Poland–Lithuania border to Tallinn/Muuga—would total €15.3 billion across the three Baltic States. In Latvia, the first phase includes the mainline from the Lithuania–Latvia border to the Latvia–Estonia border. This phase also includes the completion of the Riga Airport terminal, the southern section of Riga Central Station, and the construction of freight loading/unloading points in Iecava and Salaspils for military mobility purposes.
According to MoT estimates, in a military conflict, Rail Baltica would have the capacity to evacuate up to 98,000 civilians per day and transport up to 55,000 tons of cargo per day.
Gatis Silovs, Director of the Rail Baltica Project Department at the MoT, explained that a ramp for unloading military cargo is planned at the Iecava terminal—this would be the first unloading point for trains arriving from Poland. From there, the cargo could be transported to its final destination.
In Salaspils, a full-scale logistics terminal is planned, with both civilian and military zones. However, since Salaspils is located beyond the Daugava River, current EU funding only covers the section from the Lithuanian border to the Daugava. Additional financing sources must be found to extend the line further, Silovs noted.
Liene Gātere, Parliamentary Secretary at the Ministry of Defence (MoD), said that military mobility has been a key requirement of the defense sector since the project’s conception to ensure the transport of armored equipment.
Aigars Mikiško, Director of the MoD’s Crisis Management and Resilience Department, stated that the Salaspils logistics hub is a critical element from the perspective of military mobility. “We must ensure rapid military cargo handling within Latvia. We don’t want to solve a bottleneck at the Suwałki Corridor only to have everything stop in Latvia due to lack of capacity. This is what our allies are most concerned about,” he emphasized.
Mikiško added that NATO planning currently relies on the existing infrastructure and capacity. “Of course, the vision is for that capacity to expand, and we are discussing the development status of the project with our NATO counterparts,” he added.
Einārs Masaļskis, Head of Logistics Planning at the Joint Headquarters of the National Armed Forces (NAF), confirmed that Rail Baltica is included in Latvia’s national defense plans, even if not explicitly stated. Latvia is defined as a host nation for allied forces in both the National Defense Plan and the Operational Defense Plan, which stipulate that NATO must be able to respond quickly in the event of a threat or invasion by Russia.
“When Latvia plans its defense operations, the timeline for the arrival of allied forces is a critical factor. We have a general understanding of how much time we have from initial threat indicators, and all transport modes will be utilized,” Masaļskis explained.
He added that completing Rail Baltica would reduce the risk of delays in the arrival of allied forces—not only in Latvia but across the entire Baltic defense zone. Nevertheless, both the NAF and NATO base their current planning on existing infrastructure.
In 2020, LETA reported that the MoD’s draft National Defense Concept emphasized the need to adapt Rail Baltica for military use, including a proposed branch line to the Ādaži military base. On Wednesday, MoT officials confirmed that no such branch lines are planned in the first phase, either to Ādaži or the Selonia military training ground.
Rail Baltica aims to build a European-gauge railway line from Tallinn to the Lithuania–Poland border, enabling the Baltic States to connect by rail to the rest of Europe. The project envisions an 870-kilometer-long line with 1,435 mm gaugeand a maximum train speed of 240 km/h.
However, risks surrounding the project’s construction continue to grow, and the current funding model is no longer sustainable, according to the Fiscal Discipline Council’s oversight report on the Ministry of Finance’s Fiscal Structural Plan for 2025–2028.