Russia is targeting younger people as its traditional supporters age and decline, the Estonian Internal Security Service (ISS) said in its annual report on risks and threats to Estonia, published on Monday, the 14th of April, reports Estonian broadcaster ERR.
This year’s annual report focuses on young people and the threat posed to them by Russian influence operations and extremist groups.
“The Kremlin’s support base in Estonia, which is mainly made up of the elderly, is shrinking. As a result, Russia is shifting its influence operations towards younger Russian-speaking Estonians. It is essential to protect these young people from the influence of Russian propaganda,” writes ISS Deputy Director General Margo Palloson in the introduction to the report.
Kremlin-controlled information channels were restricted after the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, and influence operations have shifted to social media, he wrote.
“Like a terrorist organisation, spreading propaganda is as important to the Kremlin as organising the attacks themselves,” the director wrote.
Increasingly, “deep-fakes and manipulation by artificial intelligence and algorithms” are being used. This makes it harder for social media users to determine what is true or false, and they can get lost in “disinformation loops”.
Palloson said that “critical thinking is still the only reliable antidote to this problem”, which is why the Estonian education system focuses on teaching critical thinking and media literacy in schools.
Russia’s “efforts” to attract “impressionable” young people from neighbouring countries for political purposes are part of a long-term game, but this has not worked in Estonia, the report said.
The report highlights that Russia has again started to “actively” offer “youth-oriented propaganda measures”, which were temporarily suspended after the start of the full-scale invasion.
These include “free online and in-person programmes, competitions, excursions and olympiads designed to attract young people posing as legitimate opportunities”. The prize is often a trip to Russia.
ISS warns that Russia’s free offers to young people are not innocent and come with disguised commitments.
The report says that recruiting young people is a key part of the Kremlin’s divisive strategy, often supported by its embassies. This year, for example, embassies will be holding events to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War.
The Estonian ISS also warns that studying in Russia can be risky, as Russian universities are used by intelligence services to gather information and recruit students without them realising it. These efforts are usually not aggressive, but rather “a slowly and deliberately woven web around the target, making it increasingly difficult to drop out”, the report says.
Foreign students and researchers are closely monitored, especially at well-known schools.
ISS bureau chief Harrys Puusepp said Russia has a “branding problem” and is struggling to attract new people. Attempts to reach young people on social media often start with other topics such as IT and climate, but the real aim is to drive political influence.
Russia is not the only threat – other forms of extremism can also attract young people online, the report says.
IDD monitors both Islamist and far-right extremism, which can fuel each other. Although Estonia has not experienced any terrorist attacks, early prevention is important as extremists may try to gain ground.