There is a possibility that even more unfavourable decisions for Ukraine could be made by the U.S., but at this point, the suspension of U.S. aid should not be dramatized as an automatic precondition for the collapse of the front, former Commander of the Latvian National Armed Forces (NAF), Raimonds Graube, told the LETA news agency while commenting on the U.S. decision to pause and review military assistance to Ukraine.
U.S. military aid to Ukraine is extremely significant, as there are capabilities that Europe, in the short term—during the spring and summer campaigns—would find difficult or even impossible to replace, the expert pointed out. While some capabilities can be substituted by Europe, those related to space technologies or long-range missiles cannot.
“In my opinion, the worst may still come. At present, the impact of suspending the agreed-upon aid might be felt over a period of months, but an immediate effect could arise if the ‘Starlink’ internet system is shut down, as Ukraine’s drones rely heavily on it, and right now, this is a drone war,” Graube emphasized.
He did not rule out the possibility that, seeing how U.S. President Donald Trump is increasingly using harsher mechanisms to pressure Ukraine into negotiations,
the U.S. could decide to shut down ‘Starlink’. “Preparations for this scenario must start today,” Graube stressed.
Another unfavourable factor for Ukraine would be if the U.S. also halts intelligence and early warning support.
Ukraine’s defense system heavily relies on ‘Starlink’ and U.S. intelligence and early warning support. The lack of these elements would be difficult to compensate for, and replacement would not be immediate, as the process is quite complex, Graube acknowledged.
However, he refrained from speculating on what changes could occur on the front lines if the U.S. ceases assistance in these areas as well, noting that he lacks sufficient technical information.
When asked whether other Western countries could replace U.S. military supplies, Graube responded that Europe has allocated or will continue to allocate funds for Ukraine. The question remains: from whom and what types of weapon systems will be purchased with this money?
“The real stockpiles are in the U.S. If American weapons remain available for purchase with European funds, then the situation will not be immediately dramatic,” Graube emphasized.
He also reminded that Trump’s decision comes at a time when spring and summer are approaching. Many experts have already noted that Russia is building up its forces and regrouping for the spring and summer campaign, as improving weather conditions make warfare more feasible.
“If there is lack of precision-strike weapons and air defense systems, then warfare is set back by several years,” Graube highlighted Ukraine’s challenges.
At the same time, the expert urged not to dramatize the situation by assuming that U.S. aid suspension will automatically lead to the collapse of the front. “It is also unnecessary to analyze this situation in apocalyptic terms. It will be difficult, but that does not mean that the front will collapse,” Graube stressed.
As previously reported, Trump on Monday halted military aid to Ukraine, significantly increasing pressure on Kyiv to agree to peace negotiations with Russia, according to a White House official.