Over the next six years, the number of first graders in Latvian schools will decrease by 34%, according to the Ministry of Education and Science (IZM), based on current birth data.
The ministry has created a model for an optimal network of schools, which shows which municipalities, taking into account the demographics and the number of existing schools, would be able to open another large secondary school.
The model analyses data from the Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia on population, age structure in municipalities, number and age structure of teachers, as well as the existing network of schools. It is assumed that a large secondary school would need at least 90 first-graders in the future.
When analysing the information on the birth rate in municipalities, the latest available data for 2023 were used. At the same time, the Ministry of Health indicated that the number of children born in 2024 in the country is 13% lower.
Estimates show that from 2030 onward approximately 160 large secondary schools and gymnasiums should be sufficient for Latvia. 48 of them would be located in Riga.
The optimal school network to account for future demographic trends and the number of children is in 12 municipalities out of 43 – Marupe, Adazi, Salaspils, Smiltene, Gulbene, Kuldiga, Saldus, Valka, Kekava, Ropaži and Valka counties and Jelgava, according to the ministry. In some of them, the existing educational infrastructure is insufficient for the current and future projected number of children, the ministry adds.
Meanwhile, there are currently 28 more schools in Riga than in the projections for the optimal number of schools in the future. At the ministry, this is explained by the large number of small private schools and the migration of residents from the rest of Latvia, especially from Pieriga, to Riga secondary schools.
In contrast to Riga, in Latgale, all municipalities have a number of schools that do not correspond to future demographic trends in order to maintain medium-scale secondary schools in the existing number in the future, the ministry reports.
In Latvia, 38% of teachers in general education institutions are currently of retirement or pre-retirement age, according to the information provided by the Ministry of Education. At the same time, the situation differs between municipalities. Teachers are generally younger in Riga, where in Salaspils, Marupe and Ķekava municipalities less than 30% of teachers are over 55 years old. In contrast, in Alūksne and Krāslava municipality, the number of teachers older than 55 years exceeds 50% of the all teachers.
“Demographics as a policy and instruments for its improvement are not directly influenced by schools or teachers, so teacher salaries should also not be based on indicators where they have no say,” said the ministry’s deputy state secretary Jānis Paiders.
He added that it is not only about pay, but also about the quality of education, which is reflected in the different results of centralized exams in different municipalities.
For example, students whose top-level mathematics exam scores have exceeded 80% are strongly concentrated in Riga, according to the aggregated data of last year’s 12th grade centralized examinations. In Riga secondary schools and gymnasiums, 38% of the total number of secondary school students from all over Latvia took examinations in mathematics at the highest or optimal level.
Outside of Riga, only 25% of top-level mathematics scores were obtained. According to Paiders, this indicates “significant inequality” between schools in Latvia and “systematic problems” in the Latvian education system.
“Talent development opportunities and quality education are currently available where there is a larger population. It is only logical that parents want children to have access to a good education and therefore more opportunities for the future, so there is also an internal migration,” said Paiders.
Also in other centralized examinations, especially in areas where experts are urgently needed in Latvia, statistics do not show an attractive picture. For example, in only 16 municipalities, at least ten students took the centralized examination in physics at the highest level. With the exception of schools in Valmiera and Cēsis region, the overall results were mediocre, even weak within 30-50%.
Only in 14 municipalities, at least ten students passed the centralized examination in chemistry at the highest level, in seven municipalities – none. Results in chemistry were he best in Ventspils, Dobele and Jekabpils counties.
In turn, the best results of the 12th grade centralized examination in English are concentrated in Vidzeme, Zemgale, Kurzeme, Riga and Pieriga, while in Latgale counties the results were more often below 50% or 50-55% on average.
“The school is an important local “stopping point”, at the same time it is the school’s responsibility to ensure the same quality of education and therefore equal opportunities for every child and young person in Latvia,” said Paiders. He pointed out that the school network must be one that municipalities can afford and that is in line with demographic trends.
At the same time, the existing teacher pay model “Money follows pupils”, according to the ministry, will not be able to ensure fair and balanced pay. On top of that, the existing distribution of schools in Latvia will experience demographic challenges more and more.