Russia is building up its forces and combat capabilities for a confrontation with NATO, notes the Latvian Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) in its report for 2024.
In the public part of the report, the SAB pointed out that since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, European countries face a new but increasingly significant threat – sabotage and physical attacks against targets in Europe organized by Russian intelligence and security services.
In 2024, this trend had intensified significantly, and Russian organised sabotage is affecting more and more European countries. The new trend of Russian attacks confirms that Russia is already practically in direct confrontation with western countries, SAB concluded in its report.
According to the bureau, the current goal of the Russian intelligence and security services is to improve their ability to organize sabotage in Europe and is part of Russia’s preparations for a possible military confrontation with NATO in the long term.
Given that Russia’s military resources are currently concentrated in Ukraine, the likelihood of a direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO is low in 2025, the report indicates.
However, if the war in Ukraine were to be “frozen” and the Russian armed forces no longer suffered significant military losses in active hostilities, they could, for a period of up to five years, implement military augmentation plans in the direction of the north-eastern flank of NATO, including the Baltic, SAB concluded.
In such a case, the Russian military threat to NATO would increase substantially, the bureau stressed.
Commenting on the current security challenges, SAB Director Egils Zviedris explains that in the event of an external threat, it is especially important to maintain the stability and internal resilience of the country in front of it. This applies to all levels, from the individual to the political, including on the international stage. He emphasizes that it is important to think strategically, in the long term and in the context of security in any decision-making process, because it is the strength itself that is one of the most important factors in maintaining its security – no one tries to offend the strong and self-assured, he points out.
The classified part of the annual report of the SAB will be examined by the Cabinet of Ministers and the National Security Commission of the Saeima. Consequently, the directions of SAB activities for 2025 will also be approved.
The classified part of the annual report of the SAB will be examined by the Cabinet of Ministers and the National Security Commission of the Saeima. Consequently, the directions of SAB activities for 2025 will also be approved.
The SAB is one of the three Latvian state security institutions that carries out intelligence and counter-intelligence, protection of classified information in accordance with the procedure established by law, as well as carries out and controls the exchange of classified information with international organizations.