Linas Jegelevičius
After Donald Trump’s unexpected return to the White House, many in Lithuania are left wondering what to expect from the billionaire Republican this time around. Most Lithuanian politicians appear to be adopting a cautious “wait-and-see” approach, particularly regarding Trump’s stance on the ongoing war in Ukraine. Uncertainty lingers as they evaluate how his policies may impact regional security and Lithuania’s interests.
“The beginning of his presidency left virtually no one indifferent. Some are celebrating, while others are even weeping, but no one remains unaffected. However, one thing is clear: America is the first and so are the Americans, which may not sit well with those who used to see its omnipresent international involvement. The political pendulum has clearly shifted from the left to the right,” Valdas Tutkus, general and former Chief of Defence of Lithuania, emphasized to BNN.
Lithuania’s leaders were not officially invited to attend U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration in January. However, three Lithuanians were present at the event: the European Union (EU) Ambassador to the United States Jovita Neliupšienė, the owner of “Avia Solutions Group” Gediminas Žiemelis and Lithuania’s Ambassador to the United States Audra Plepytė.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda expressed optimism about the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump,
emphasizing the potential for strengthening the long-standing U.S.-Lithuanian friendship and advancing bilateral cooperation.
“Lithuania will remain a steadfast and reliable U.S. ally. It is ready to collaborate with the United States to promote sustainable and just peace globally, including in Ukraine. Between 2026 and 2030, Lithuania plans to allocate up to 6 percent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to defence. This investment will enhance conditions for deploying allied forces in Lithuania, including the U.S. rotational battalion, and support further cooperation in defence industries and arms procurement,” the Presidential Office stated.
Earlier, Nausėda criticized Donald Trump’s comments about potentially taking control of Greenland, calling such remarks “unacceptable” and emphasizing the importance of respecting sovereignty.
Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas expressed optimism that Donald Trump’s return to the White House would not harm Vilnius’s relations with the U.S. administration.
“We can see from the first signals that the new U.S. administration is taking bilateral cooperation seriously,” Paluckas stated during an interview on LRT TV.
He emphasized that relations with the new U.S. administration are being “very intensively established” through diplomatic channels and direct interactions between politicians.
“Every effort is being made to quickly and thoroughly understand the position of the new U.S. administration and the new president on various issues. The whole of Europe is reading between the lines and trying to interpret what Mr. Trump sometimes says,” Paluckas remarked.
The prime minister acknowledged that initial concerns had arisen regarding the U.S. stance on Ukraine and the ongoing war, but he noted signs of improvement in these areas.
“We can see that after the inauguration, these positions are becoming increasingly balanced or normalizing. I am confident that we will continue to have strong relations with the U.S.,” he added.
According to Valdas Tutkus, Donald Trump “not only spoke, but he immediately began taking action toward the well-being of the American people.”
Since his inauguration on the 20th of January 20, President Donald Trump has issued several significant executive orders that have reshaped various aspects of U.S. policy.
Linas Kojala, Director of the Eastern Europe Studies Center, a think-tank based in Vilnius, Lithuania, believes that President Donald Trump is, for now, consistently following the approach he articulated on his first day in office: the obstacle to peace negotiations is not Ukraine but Russia.
On the 22nd of January, Trump publicly urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to strike a peace deal with Ukraine, warning that Moscow would face sanctions and tariffs if it failed to end the war.
However, the U.S. president avoided commenting on whether he would continue his predecessor Joe Biden’s policy of providing military aid to Ukraine.
“If that’s the case, then the natural follow-up would be finding ways to pressure the Kremlin. Harsher sanctions, tariffs, and other forms of pressure seem like logical next steps. A significant portion of the blame for the current situation can also be attributed to Ukraine’s not always effective diplomacy,” Kojala remarked in his Facebook post.
According to Kojala, Trump’s apparent recognition of Russia’s vulnerabilities is particularly noteworthy.
“This is a breath of fresh air compared to the long-standing narrative about Russia’s unbreakable system and the perceived weakness of the West. The Kremlin wants to turn this into a ‘self-fulfilling prophecy,’ but Trump’s rhetoric challenges that,” he said.
Despite the positive shift in rhetoric, Kojala cautioned against drawing premature conclusions. He pointed out that the Biden administration left behind four billion US dollars in unused funds intended for Ukraine’s military aid, which the Trump administration can now access. However, this amount is relatively small and insufficient for sustained support.
Further aid will require Congressional approval, which could prove challenging. Besides, Trump has already halted all international aid programs, that for Ukraine, too, for 90 days.
Alvydas Medalinskas, a renowned Lithuanian political analyst from Lithuania, who for the last 30 years has had a great interest in Russia, and Ukraine, said in his Facebook post following Trump’s inauguration that international politics is “increasingly turning” into a stage where the right decisions by one leader can prevent the expansion of authoritarian regimes or even lead to the collapse of Putin’s regime after the weak policies of the Biden administration.
“However, wrong steps could further weaken the West. The worst part is that neither we nor Ukraine fully know what those steps will be or the direction they will take. International politics has become a matter of faith: will Trump make the right moves, or will he make the wrong ones?” Medalinskas asks rhetorically.
After Trump’s inaugural speech, the mood in Ukraine is much more cautious than that in Lithuania, he observes.
“I also believe there are many unknowns in Trump’s policies regarding Putin, Ukraine, and European security. Serious questions arise for NATO partners in Europe as well. Will they manage to stand together as equal partners, or will they individually look for ways to align themselves with Trump’s positions?” the analyst ponders.
Saulius Spurga, a political scientist from Mykolas Romeris University (MRU), considers the comeback of Trump as “moment one of the most pivotal in history, marking a fundamental shift in the political field.”
According to him, judging from Trump’s first days in the White House, the economic policy in the US is shifting, oligarchs are consolidating power, and those close to the president are gaining influence. The analyst is also concerned about Americans’ big distrust in elections, polarization of the society, as well as the decline of the U.S. as a democratic leader.
“For decades, particularly after World War II, the U.S. was seen as the beacon of democracy and a global role model. This is no longer the case.
With domestic riots, societal polarization, and a president making undemocratic statements, the U.S. has lost that status. Moreover, by retreating from its role as a world leader, the U.S. has ceded ground to powers like China and Russia. This retreat has accelerated the erosion of democracy in many countries worldwide,” Spurga asserted to Žinių radijas.
Audronė Balnionienė, a councilwoman of the Klaipėda District Council, commented to BNN that Donald Trump’s promise to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours appears to have been nothing more than an electoral pledge.
“As a liberal, I am concerned about possible violations of human rights in the United States, particularly regarding immigrants and other minorities,” Balnionienė stated, expressing apprehension about potential policy changes under Trump’s administration.
Evaldas Petrauskas, a businessman from Western Lithuania, expressed his interest in observing how the anticipated “tax wars” under Donald Trump’s leadership will unfold, though he fears that Europe could emerge as the loser.
“Any war is bad, even in trade. I really hope the war in Ukraine is nearing its end now that Trump is in power,” Petrauskas told BNN.