Analysts and war bloggers say Russian forces in Ukraine have made their fastest progress since early 2022, taking territory half the size of London in the past month, while some Russian and Western officials say the war has entered its most dangerous phase, with Moscow capturing territory and the US allowing Kyiv to respond with US missiles, on Monday, the 25th of November, reports Reuters.
“Russia has set new weekly and monthly records for the size of territory occupied in Ukraine,” said a report by the independent Russian news group Agentstvo.
The Russian army occupied almost 235 square kilometres in Ukraine last week, a weekly record for 2024, the agency said.
It added that Russian forces had captured 600 square kilometres in November, citing data from DeepState, an organisation with close ties to the Ukrainian army that studies battle material and provides maps of the front lines.
Since July, when Ukraine made gains in the Kursk region, Russia has accelerated its advance in eastern Ukraine and now controls 18% of Ukraine, including Crimea, most of Donbas, 70% of Zaporizhia and Kherson and just under 3% of Kharkiv, according to open-source maps.
The main advance has been in the Donetsk area of Donbass, with Russian forces advancing towards the cities of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. According to Russian analysts, Russia is encircling the areas and then shelling Ukrainian forces with artillery and glide bombs.
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said Monday that 45 battles of varying intensity took place along the front line in Kurakhove in the evening.
On Monday, Russian war bloggers and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russian forces were in Kurakhove, while the Deep State claimed that Russian forces were near the town. The bloggers suggest that the breakthrough could allow Russian forces to advance towards Zaporizhzhia and Pokrovsk.
“The advance of Russian forces in south-eastern Ukraine is largely the result of vulnerabilities and tactical exploits discovered along Ukrainian lines,” the ISW report said.
On Tuesday, Russia carried out its largest drone strike against Ukraine to date,
cutting power to most of the Ternopil region and damaging residential buildings in the Kyiv region, according to Ukrainian officials.
Of the 188 drones used overnight, Ukraine shot down 76 and lost 96, possibly due to active electronic warfare, the air force said. Five drones headed towards Belarus.
“The enemy fired a record number of Shahed combat drones and unindetifiable drones …,” the statement said. Russia is using cheap “suicide” and “decoy” drones, creating difficulties for Ukraine’s air defences.
Meanwhile, Sergei Naryshkin, head of Vladimir Putin’s Foreign Intelligence Service, said Russia categorically opposes a “freeze” on the conflict in Ukraine and that Russia “wants a stable and long-term peace” aimed at addressing the root causes of the crisis.
He added that Russia has the battlefield initiative and remains open for talks.