BNN ANALYSES | Lithuania has a new PM, but President Nausėda will vet the ministerial candidates now

Linas Jegelevičius

On the 21st of November, members of Lithuania’s newly elected 2024–2028 Parliament, the Seimas, approved the candidacy of 45-year-old Social Democrat (LSDP) Gintautas Paluckas as Prime Minister.

A total of 88 MPs voted in favor of Paluckas, 34 voted against, and six abstained. His candidacy received unanimous support from the ruling coalition factions. Additionally, three lawmakers from the mixed Seimas group supported the nomination. In contrast, five members of the Farmers and Greens and Lithuanian Poles faction abstained, while others from this faction chose not to participate in the vote.

Paluckas, who led the LSDP from 2017 to 2021, carries a criminal record. In 2012, he was found guilty of abuse of office in a public procurement case involving overpriced rodent extermination services while serving as director of Vilnius City Municipality administration. He attributed the issue to an error and accepted full responsibility.

Before the vote on PM in the Seimas, according to the Constitution, President Gitanas Nausėda submitted the nomination of Paluckas to the Parliament for the position.

The LSDP decision to nominate Paluckas to lead Lithuania’s 19th government followed the party leader Vilija Blinkevičiūtė’s choice to retain her seat in the European Parliament, renouncing her Lithuanian MP mandate and the possibility of becoming Prime Minister.

According to the Constitution, the Seimas must approve the composition of the Cabinet of Ministers within two weeks of appointing the Prime Minister, and the Government’s program within an additional two weeks.

Paluckas intended to pay a visit to President Nausėda on the afternoon of the 21st of November and introduce the list of his Cabinet members.

“I think the president will have especially tough talk with the ministerial candidates of the Nemunas Dawn. I think the head-of-state will not want to see them in the Cabinet,” Lauras Bielinis, a political science professor at Vytautas Magnus University, told BNN.

President Nausėda stresses that national and European security must remain top priorities for the incoming Cabinet,

underlining the importance of supporting Ukraine, meeting NATO commitments, and maintaining robust defence funding.

However, although the coalition agreement pledges to ensure defence funding in line with military advice, a recent meeting of the National Defence Council revealed concerns that the full capacity of Lithuania’s military division might only be achieved by 2036–2040, instead of the previously planned 2030, due to current funding levels.

The Nemunas Dawn and the Democratic Union For Lithuania also advocate for higher salaries for public officials and increased intelligence funding. Although the outgoing government has pledged not to borrow to address the defence budget needs, Paluckas indicated that borrowing could become necessary if the European Commission permits deviations from the Maastricht criteria.

Social Democrat MP and likely the new Cabinet’s defence minister Dovilė Šakalienė supports the idea of ignoring EU fiscal limits if required to increase defence spending.

President Nausėda echoed this sentiment, suggesting defence allocations might need to reach 5% of GDP over the next six years to meet national security goals.

Paluckas already stated that the outgoing government’s budget draft limits opportunities for adjustments, though the new coalition aims to find solutions.

“The main risk for the future Government’s program is excessive ambition paired with insufficient resources,” the incoming PM has said.

Paluckas hopes to secure an additional 100 million euros for road infrastructure and increase defence funding by nearly half a percentage point in 2025.

Coalition partners have also prioritized raising salaries for civil servants.

The Social Democrats aim to allocate an additional 40 million euros for children’s programs, including tripling funding for the non-formal education basket to reflect rising costs.

Paluckas expressed concern over the lack of indexation for these funds, stating, “This is a challenge for families raising children.”

On foreign policy, Paluckas signaled a shift toward mending relations with China, following tensions over Taiwan’s representative office in Vilnius.

“Maintaining normal relations is certainly a goal,” he told BNS, while noting that the EU’s relations with China remain complex, involving trade disputes and protectionist policies.

In the October Seimas elections, the LSDP emerged victorious with 52 seats, followed by Nemunas Dawn with 20 seats and the Democratic Union For Lithuania with 14. The coalition controls 86 seats in the 141-member Seimas. The previously ruling Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats secured 29 seats, moving into opposition for the 2024–2028 term.

“Arithmetically, the coalition is strong, but in terms of finding a common language and common values, it is rather a fragile coalition,”

L. Bielinis told BNN, adding that challenges for the ruling LSDP could arise from the rank-and-file MPs of the Nemunas Dawn party.

“Look, even some high-profile Social Democrats publicly say that it was wrong to form the coalition with it,” the analyst said.

The vice-chairman of the LSDP, Liutauras Gudžinskas, resigned in protest against the coalition’s inclusion of Nemunas Dawn, which he described as a “populist protest party” characterized by ideological superficiality and one-man leadership

Meanwhile, political scientist Vytautas Dumbliauskas from Mykolas Romeris University expressed doubts about Paluckas’ charisma and leadership effectiveness.

Speaking to BNN, V. Dumbliauskas predicted that the other coalition partners, the LSDP and the Democratic Union For Lithuania, would eventually “cry” over their alliance with Žemaitaitis.

“He will sneer and jeer at everyone. He is all over the moon mocking the president, everybody,” V. Dumbliauskas said.

On Wednesday, the 20th of November, Lithuania’s Prosecutor General Nida Grunskienė formally requested that the parliament strip MP Žemaitaitis of his legal immunity.

The request follows a ruling by the Vilnius Regional Court as part of an ongoing criminal investigation. Žemaitaitis faces charges related to his new Facebook posts deemed offensive toward Israel and Jewish people.

Under the Constitution, members of the Seimas cannot be prosecuted or have their liberty restricted without parliamentary consent.

“It remains to be seen how the MPs from the ruling coalition will vote – strip Žemaitaitis of impunity or not. I believe the majority will support the prosecutor’s request,” L. Bielinis said.

If the Nemunas Dawn’s leader loses immunity and his MP mandate, Žemaitaitis will be “politically isolated”, the analyst emphasized.

Agreeing, V. Dumbliauskas says that, with the course of events, the 20-member faction of the Nemunas Dawn MPs will “likely” split in a couple of years.

“This is perhaps inevitable,” the analyst said.

Earlier this year, the Constitutional Court ruled that Žemaitaitis violated his oath as an MP and grossly breached the Constitution through anti-Semitic remarks. An impeachment process was initiated but left incomplete after he resigned from the Seimas to run in this year’s presidential and parliamentary elections.