Linas Jegelevičius
The truth is, that Lithuania’s political elite had anticipated a more predictable outcome, with Democrat Kamala Harris as the next U.S. president. However, the reality has turned out differently: a much less predictable Republican, Donald Trump, has secured the presidency. What can Lithuania expect from him regarding international trade, the war in Ukraine, and relations with NATO?
BNN reached out to various analysts for insights.
Kęstutis Girnius, an associate professor at Vilnius University, told BNN that, at this stage, “it is very hard to tell what Trump’s second presidency will look like.” He explained: “His rhetoric remains harsh and radical, similar to 2016, but his actions have been much more moderate. So, we’re left guessing; the rhetoric may not match the actions.
However, regarding U.S. foreign policy, I believe he will reduce aid to Ukraine. I don’t think he’ll cut it off completely but will continue pressuring NATO allies to contribute more to defence,” Girnius said.
On economic issues, Girnius suggested that Trump might consider increasing tariffs on Chinese goods, which would affect trade globally.
Audrius Butkevičius, Lithuania’s first post-1990 defence minister, who has been advising various Ukrainian political entities for over a decade, expressed disappointment with the Biden administration’s support for Ukraine.
“Biden once said in a State of the Union address, ‘We will stand with you as long as it takes,’ yet only about 10% of his promises have been fulfilled. Sadly, these unfulfilled promises have cost many Ukrainian lives. Although Trump has made negative remarks about Ukraine and its president, Zelenskyy, he is likely to take clearer, more impactful actions. His rhetoric doesn’t necessarily reflect what he’ll do in office,” Butkevičius told BNN.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis noted that “war fatigue” over the Russia-Ukraine conflict has reached new highs in Western countries. He highlighted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s proposed victory plan as an attempt to counteract this sentiment during a recent session of the Assembly of the Seimas and the Verkhovna Rada in Vilnius.
With the U.S. presidential vote results trickling in, prominent Lithuanian analyst Tomas Janeliūnas quickly noted on Facebook that
“Europe needs to change its thinking, or it will face challenging times ahead.”
When asked by BNN to elaborate, Janeliūnas explained: “There has been a lot of discussion about Europe becoming more autonomous, both within NATO and beyond, to defend its own security interests at its borders. However, these declarations have not yet translated into action. The largest European military powers have not reformed their forces accordingly, even though the European Commission has made some moves in this direction.”
As a reminder, the EC has allocated the European Defence Fund 7.3 billion euros for 2021–2027 to support research and development in defence.
Remigijus Žemaitaitis, chairman of the nationalist party The Dawn of the River Neman, which won 20 seats in Lithuania’s 2024–2028 Parliament and is being considered as a coalition partner, expressed scepticism about Trump’s familiarity with the Baltic region. “Trump may struggle to locate Lithuania on a map,” he remarked.
“Our political elite fears Trump, but his influence has pushed Europe to reconsider its defence policies.
It’s too soon to predict his policies on Ukraine or NATO; we should wait until after his inauguration on the 20th of January,” Žemaitaitis told BNN.
Žemaitaitis also argued that Trump’s re-election wouldn’t necessarily fuel global populist or radical political movements, suggesting that Trump’s influence might prompt traditional parties to reassess their values and preclude the rise of non-mainstream parties.
Linas Kojala, Director of the Eastern Europe Studies Centre (EESC), noted that Trump’s commitment to increasing the U.S. defence budget would benefit all allies. “During his first term, Trump criticized NATO’s low defence spending, which helped drive growth. He also opposed Germany’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline, a project not sanctioned by the Biden administration, and time has shown he, along with Lithuania and Poland, was right,” Kojala wrote in a Facebook post.
Kojala added that Trump was the first U.S. president to provide lethal aid to Ukraine, something the Obama administration had limited to non-lethal support.
Under Trump, U.S. troop presence in Lithuania expanded from a company to a battalion, but Kojala acknowledged Trump’s current advisors, including Vice President J.D. Vance, who hold strong anti-Ukraine views.
Trump has also suggested imposing tariffs not only on China but potentially on the EU as well. Given Germany’s current economic challenges, such tariffs could have severe repercussions.
On the 6th of November, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda congratulated Donald Trump on his election victory,
posting on social media: “The U.S. is a key strategic ally of Lithuania. We both take our security seriously. Lithuania currently allocates 3.5% of its GDP to defence and will continue to increase investment. Transatlantic unity is crucial!”
In September, Nausėda affirmed Lithuania’s goal of maintaining U.S. troop presence, regardless of the U.S. election outcome. Currently, a U.S. battalion of around 1 000 troops is stationed in Lithuania.
Speaker of the Parliament Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen echoed Nausėda’s sentiment, emphasizing the importance of preserving Lithuania’s strategic partnership with the U.S. “Our relationship encompasses defence, economic cooperation, and more. Without question, we’ll continue strengthening this partnership at all levels, and I believe parliamentary diplomacy will be essential in maintaining the cooperation we’ve built since our independence,” she said in an interview with Žinių Radijas.
However, Čmilytė-Nielsen expressed concern over a possible shift toward U.S. isolationism under Trump.
“We’re concerned about whether the U.S. might adopt a more isolationist stance on global issues. That’s why it’s important to strengthen ties by sending our politicians to Washington, engaging with Congress, and sharing our region’s concerns,” she told BNS.
The Speaker added that, if Trump takes office, Lithuania must demonstrate its commitment to defence in both actions and words, giving it grounds to expect reciprocal support from its closest allies.