Linas Jegelevičius
Lithuanian voters have propelled the Social Democrats to the top in the country’s general election.
The Social Democrats (LSDP) swept the single-member constituencies, winning 32 out of 37 races they were running in, a triumph few had expected. Although the 52 seats they secured in the 141-member Seimas, the Lithuanian legislature, are short of a majority, i.e. 71 seats, the party is orchestrating coalition formation talks – meeting the Democratic Union “For Lithuania” (15 seats), the Farmers and Greens Union (LVŽS, 8 seats), the Liberal Movement (12 seats) and even the election’s sensation, the radical right “The Dawn of the River Neman” (20).
The LSDP has said that the first two are the most likely partners in the LSDP-led coalition.
However, disappointment with the LSDP has come sooner than expected: its leader, Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, has broken her promise to lead the new government, a role she pledged to take if her party won. Making the disappointment even more acrimonious she cited her age – she is 64 – and unspecified health issues as reasons for choosing to remain a Member of the European Parliament.
As a result, the internet is teeming with sardonic zingers, ridiculing the LSDP leader and the party.
“What a farce! She’s fit enough to collect her 8 000-euro-plus salary in Brussels, but she can’t do the job as an ordinary parliamentarian in the Seimas (Lithuanian Parliament)?” commented one observer.
Many feel betrayed, and analysts agree that without Blinkevičiūtė, the party’s election results could have been considerably different – likely worse.
“For those who follow politics, it was almost clear by summer that when the time came, she wouldn’t be willing to wear the crown of thorns. But the way she made her excuse – so bluntly, so primitively, without disclosing any serious health issues and merely citing her age – was shockingly crude,” said Vytautas Bruveris, director of ELTA, a Lithuanian news agency.
Birutė Davidonytė, a prominent Lithuanian journalist, remarked that just a few months ago, Blinkevičiūtė had promised to “take full responsibility and work as prime minister.”
“Ironically, now she calls herself a 65-year-old pensioner when she’s 64. She’s even forgotten her age. And of course, neither her abilities nor her age seem to be obstacles to representing Lithuania in the European Parliament and earning a high salary. Honestly, I haven’t seen a more cynical press conference in a long time – it was obvious she considered everyone around her a fool,” Davidonytė said.
However, Tomas Janeliūnas, a professor at Vilnius University’s Institute of International Relations and Political Science (TSPMI), defended the LSDP leader.
“If someone genuinely believes voters were ‘fooled,’ it suggests the voters were willing to be fooled. More precisely, it implies someone thinks voters were just naive. A Lithuanian proverb says, ‘A fool is beaten even in church,’ yet I don’t think voters were foolish. The majority simply wanted a government different from the conservative one. The Social Democrats presented the strongest alternative to the conservative-liberal coalition. The fact that they can now form a coalition without much difficulty—and especially without negotiating with ‘Nemunas Dawn’—reflects the collective wisdom of the voters, who were wise to give the Social Democrats more seats,” he told BNN.
He added that Blinkevičiūtė’s “easy deception” is just a typical political maneuver.
“Well, maybe it wasn’t especially graceful or elegant, but it was still typical political behaviour – not a deception. It’s simply politics. If you still believe that politicians never lie or always keep their promises, you’re bound to be disappointed; in a political sense, that’s as naive as believing in Santa Claus,” Janeliūnas remarked.
On the 30th of October, at a meeting of the party’s leadership,
Blinkevičiūtė proposed that fellow Social Democrat Gintautas Paluckas, a former party leader, should head the new government.
“This was a unanimous decision by the party’s presidium. We believe he is the best candidate, with the necessary experience and qualities to be prime minister,” Blinkevičiūtė told reporters after the meeting, LRT.lt, the website of Lithuania’s national broadcaster, reported.
Paluckas, 45, led the Social Democrats from 2017 to 2021, resigning in favour of Blinkevičiūtė after the party’s weak showing in the 2020 election.
The Homeland Union–Lithuanian Christian Democrats (Homeland Union-LCD), the current ruling party, will move into opposition, holding 29 seats in the Seimas for the 2024-2028 term.
Homeland Union leader Gabrielius Landsbergis stepped down after the election,
explaining that the voters’ message was clear as the TS-LKD lost its parliamentary majority, and he himself was defeated in the Centro-Žaliakalnis single-member constituency.
“The voters’ message is clear, both for the party and for me. Ignoring it would be a mistake. Having heard it, I am stepping down today as chairman of the Homeland Union–Lithuanian Christian Democrats,” Landsbergis said at the 28th of October press conference, LRT.lt reported.
The politician also announced that he would not serve in the next Seimas, passing on his mandate to the next candidate on the party’s list for the multi-member constituency.
“Beyond the message for our political force, there is a personal signal to me. I am taking a break from my political career and passing on my mandate. I cannot ignore that the party has become a hostage to a highly negative narrative tied to me and my family,” he added, LRT.lt said.
Before the 27th of October runoff elections, the “Dawn of the River Nemunas”, led by outspoken Remigijus Žemaitaitis, was considered pivotal to forming a new government.
He insisted that no center-left coalition could succeed without them, but now it appears they will remain in opposition alongside the conservatives, whom Žemaitaitis views as chief adversaries.
Fifteen seats for the Democratic Union “For Lithuania,” which split from the LVŽS reportedly due to a fallout with the party’s leader Ramūnas Karbauskis, is a significant result under Skvernelis, who served as prime minister during the LVŽS-led government from 2016 to 2020.
Skvernelis has indicated that he does not want the LVŽS as part of the new government.
The Liberal Movement, with 12 seats, could be an alternative third member for the coalition, a preference Skvernelis has previously expressed. The liberals have not ruled this out, stating only that they would not work with the LVŽS or “Dawn of the River Nemunas”.
One of the election’s biggest surprises was the conservative Education Minister and TS-LKD vice-chairwoman Radvilė Morkūnaitė-Mikulėnienė’s defeat to Vytautas Sinica of the far-right National Rally. Sinica, the sole representative of his party, advocates an anti-immigration, anti-LGBTQ platform.
The liberal Freedom Party, the current coalition’s minority party, will not have representation in the 2024-2028 Seimas.