Linas Jegelevičius
Like elsewhere, climate change in Lithuania is real – visible and tangible, and many warn, it will wreak havoc and social tension in the future.
Donatas Valiukas, head of the Climate and Research Department of the Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service (LHMT), told BNN that this summer was a little bit cooler, especially June, but a record hot night was recorded – 25.1°C in Molėtai.
“There has never been such a hot tropical night in the history of meteorological observations in Lithuania…
Tropical nights appeared together with intense climate change in recent decades. The average annual temperature in Lithuania since 1961 up to now has risen as much as 2.4 degrees Celsius, and winter months have become unusually warm. Even one degree is a lot in the global context,” emphasized D. Valiukas.
According to the LHMT, during 1961–1990, hot days (≥30°C) occurred on average only one per year in Lithuania (every 2-3 years there was not a single such day). However, in the period of 1991-2020, the number of such days increased approximately fourfold to four days. In the last decade, it has increased even more, even up to six days.
Jonas Viskontas, member of Lithuania’s Green Party and its candidate in the single-member Mėguva constituency, told BNN that climate change is “obvious” in Lithuania.
“Evaluating the number of days with snow cover, winter in Lithuania is now shorter by a whole month.
The average temperature has increased by two degrees Celsius. This is more than the world average. The level of the Baltic Sea is rising, and it is happening at the expense of the beaches. We observe more and more heavy and sudden rains and heat waves. This summer brought many tropical nights, nearly unseen before. In the future, all these changes will only become more apparent, which will pose more and more challenges for agriculture, urban infrastructure, and public health,” J.Viskontas said.
Marilė Kosaitė, chief specialist of the Environment Ministry’s Climate Policy Group (CPG), says that effects of climate change can be felt in “almost all spheres of our lives and activities.”
“They are evidenced by the increasing frequency of droughts, storms and other extreme meteorological phenomena. Lithuania’s climate change-related losses in 2022 alone amounted to 243 million euros,” M. Kosaitė emphasised to BNN.
She says this week, on the 16th of September, the 17th heat record was recorded in Lithuania this year.
In 2023 there were 16 such records, in 2022 – 13, and in 2021 – six.
“In addition, as many as 19 extreme natural meteorological phenomena were recorded in 2023 (a catastrophic very strong wind was recorded during one of them) and although fewer of them were recorded this year (eight natural meteorological phenomena have been recorded so far), the storm alone on the 28th of July caused millions of losses, and tens of thousands of people were left without electricity,” M. Kosaitė said.
To address the environmental challenges, the Ministries of Energy and Environment are currently preparing an updated National Energy and Climate Action Plan for 2021-2030 (NEKSVP),
which is an action plan for the implementation of the National Climate Change Management Agenda and the National Energy Independence Strategy, both crucial in reaching objectives set out in the EU-endorsed “Green Course” – go climate neutral by 2050, i.e. have an economy with net-zero greenhouse gas emissions.
According to M. Kosaitė, Lithuania’s Environmental Protection Agency annually monitors the amount of greenhouse gas emissions and provides information on the direct (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, SF6 and NF3) and indirect (CO, NOx, NMLOJ, SO2) emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the territory of Lithuania.
In addition, during the implementation of the “ClimAdapt-LT” project, the Ministry of the Environment initiated the preparation of an interactive map and scoreboard, where it is possible to see how the climate will change in each municipality of Lithuania by the year 2100.
The scoreboard consists of two parts. In the toolbar of the first part, it is possible to choose an optimistic or pessimistic climate change scenario, time periods and prognostic indicators. Three blocks of indicators are provided: precipitation and hydrology, wind and sea, temperature and sun. After selecting the municipality of interest on the interactive map, the second part of the scoreboard shows the generated generalized forecast information according to the above-mentioned indicators for this territory of the country.
“This tool helps municipalities prepare climate change adaptation plans,” M. Kosaitė said.
Last year, study “Climate Neutrality by 2050”, presented by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), laid out recommendations for reforms in Lithuania while implementing decarbonization goals – how it will affect our country and what opportunities a climate-neutral economic model creates for Lithuania.
It has been established that the growth of the Lithuanian economy has been successfully decoupled from the amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the intensity of GHG emissions from energy consumption in Lithuania remains higher than the EU average.
GHG intensity index in Lithuania in 2017 differed from the EU result by almost 14 percent. points,
and in 2020 the difference increased to 23.4%.
To achieve the country’s GHG reduction goals, OECD experts emphasize the necessity of implementing an ambitious cross-sectoral climate change policy, increasing environmental taxes and abandoning fossil fuel subsidies.
According to OECD experts, the decarbonization of the Lithuanian economy will require long-term measures. Priority must be given to increasing GHG reductions from the transport sector, while the aging and inefficient car fleet, increasing road freight and urban development require urgent solutions.
But is this enough to stave off climate change-triggered nature calamities ahead?
J. Viskontas believes that a lot more needs to be done on the local levels, not only nationally.
“Equally important are investments in a natural weapon against pollution, i.e. restoration of wetlands, protection of meadows, forests, and soil. Changes are also needed in the economy. We still waste or otherwise destroy more than 80% of primary resources, because we have not developed solutions for recycling, reuse and repair,” he says.
Sigitas Besagirskas, a prominent Lithuanian economist and businessman, says that Lithuania, like the rest modern world, is in a transitional period – seeing investments in green technologies increasing and the technologies will become cheaper over the time.
Yet Besagirskas says he feels like giving the green agenda the benefit of the doubt.
“Will we see them cheaper because there will be even more subsidies? The European Commission has planned to spend at least one trillion euros in the next decade for the Green Deal alone, not to mention other programs. But to whom does Europe give that money? After all, the main producer of “green things” is China,” S. Besagirskas told BNN, adding: “After all, solar panels, wind turbines and batteries are born here. Even if we declare that it is made in the EU, de facto it is only assembled from Chinese components. Even European Commissioner for Climate Wopke Hoekstra said that green energy is now mostly a Chinese affair.”
He brings up the fact that solar panels and wind turbines have an average lifespan of about 15-30 years. After that, you need to dispose of it.
“How to dispose of composite wind turbine wings? How about solar cells, especially those with a “sandwich” of plastic, glass, plastic?” he asks rhetorically.
“I like the green economy, I always sort my waste, I ride an electric car, I often go short distances by bicycle. Yet I often find myself musing: where is the limit of becoming green and greener? Sometimes I can’t get rid of the feeling that we are seeing a good deal of greenwashing, but, no doubt, the issue of climate change is dead serious for all of us,” the Lithuanian businessman said.