A survey released on Monday, the 15th of January, of leading economists concludes that the global economy faces weak growth prospects and uncertainty stemming from geopolitical strife, tight financing conditions and the impact of artificial intelligence, reports Reuters.
More than 60 leading economists from both the private and public sectors around the world take part in the survey, which is conducted annually ahead of the World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Davos. It aims to identify priorities for policy makers and business leaders.
According to the survey, 56% of respondents expect global economic conditions to worsen this year.
Most respondents were optimistic about moderate or strong growth in China and the US. However, there was broad consensus that economic growth in Europe is expected to be weak or very weak.
The outlook for South and East Asia and the Pacific was more positive, with most respondents expecting at least moderate growth in 2024.
Despite indications from major central banks that interest rates are at their peak, 70% of respondents expect an easing of financial conditions. This forecast is based on the belief that inflation and the current tight labour markets will ease.
The survey predicts that the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the global economy
will have an uneven impact. While 94% of respondents expect AI to significantly boost productivity in high-income countries over the next five years, only 53% expect a similar impact in low-income countries.
In a separate study, the WEF looked at the “quality” of economic growth in 107 countries and found that in most countries growth is neither environmentally sustainable nor socially inclusive.
The WEF announced the launch of a campaign to define a new approach to growth, helping policymakers to strike a balance between economic, social, environmental and other priorities.
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