Linas Jegelevičius
With Russia’s war in Ukraine getting closer to the mark of two years, the West, Lithuania and perhaps Ukraine itself are registering more fatigue from it than ever. Although some of the analysts approached by BNN chalked it up to the success of Russian propaganda, the others were blunt – Ukraine war fatigue is setting in and it plays into Putin’s hand.
Elections are not a good omen for Ukraine
Mindaugas Skritulskas, member of the Lithuanian Parliament, Seimas, told BNN that what many call Ukraine war fatigue is tangible and natural.
“The support we are still seeing is big and, in most cases, it is unwavering, however, it is natural that, with the war about to hit its second-year’s mark, the attention for it is decreasing or shaping in new forms, at least in some of the countries, especially those that are in the election cycles, like the United States (the US holds the presidential election in November of 2024 – L. J.). Unfortunately, some of the political parties, like, for example, in Slovakia and the Netherlands used the populations’ tiredness with Ukraine-related issues for their political gains,” M. Skritulskas told BNN.
The MP predicted that, provided Ukraine receives the necessary continuous funding
and the military armoury, the country will be able to stave off Russian offence and, perhaps, claim some territories back in 2024.
“However, with the elections to the European Parliament and general elections to be held in other Western countries in 2024, I am afraid that voices of the other kind, ones suggesting peace talks and a truce between will be heard louder and louder,” the parliamentarian emphasised.
BNN reminds that a party headed by a pro-Kremlin figure came out top after securing more votes than expected in an election in Slovakia in November. This could pose a challenge to NATO and EU unity on Ukraine. Robert Fico’s populist SMER party won 22.9% of the vote. Speaking after his victory, Fico doubled down on his rhetoric, said he “will do everything” in his power to kickstart Russia-Ukraine peace talks.
Meanwhile, in the Netherlands, far-right Dutch lawmaker Geert Wilders, typically notorious for his dislike of Islam and the European Union, won the Dutch parliamentary election in late November.
Several pro-Kremlin publications and so-called Z-channels on Telegram touted his victory and called him Russia’s friend.
Doubt over West’s involvement remains
Speaking to BNN, Andžej Pukšto, associate professor of Kaunas’ Vytautas Magnus University, admitted that Ukraine war fatigue is setting in – to a lesser or bigger extent.
“We need to admit it. Some people in the West have doubted necessity to help Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s invasion. Let’s remember that, with war started, France’s Macron (the current French president – L J.) and Germany’s Schultz (the current German chancellor – L. J.) called Putin. Over the nearly two years, the center of assistance to Ukraine has shifted from central and eastern Europe to Western Europe and the United States, however, doubt over the West’s involvement – and to what degree it has to get involved – still remains. With Ukraine struggling and with the support for it on a lower edge, the voice of Ukraine sceptics will grow and be heard louder, which plays into Putin’s hand,” A. Pukšto emphasised.
Former Defence minister: we need to talk about fear, not fatigue
Meanwhile, Audrius Butkevičius, the first Defence minister of a post-1990 independent Lithuania, told BNN this: “I do think that all the talks about Ukraine war fatigue, which allegedly is omnipresent, is part of Russian propaganda, which has been foisting the same message nearly two years now. We have been hearing that the West cannot win the war, it is having a dire toll on Western economies and et cetera. It seems that Russia, the aggressor, has succeeded in the communications.”
“I think that we all should speak not about fatigue but about fear.
The moment is clear: Europe is gravitating towards military conflagration with Russia. The only question that is still unanswered is this: when will it happen? In five or six years from now? Or later, in, say, eight years?” the former minister, who has had various defence-related consulting jobs in Ukraine, emphasised.
Of course, some other countries, like Moldova, the analyst says can perhaps rough up the Russia plans, and there are other possible hotspots in the map, but Russia has not been deterred, Butkevičius says.
According to him, while some Western countries try to assume the position that nothing horrible happened yet, it is Germany that has stated very clearly recently: Germany needs to get prepared for a war as soon as possible.
That Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is forcing Germany to turn its military into a powerful
and well-financed fighting force focused on defending the country and NATO allies, Germany’s chancellor admitted in November.
“Today, nobody can seriously doubt what we in Germany have been avoiding for a long time, namely that we need a powerful Bundeswehr…Our peace order is in danger,” he warned in an interview, also mentioning the war between Hamas and Israel and adding that Germany needs “a long-term, permanent change of course.”
War will be in stalemate in 2024?
A.Butkevičius believes that war in Ukraine will be in a rigid stalemate throughout 2024.
“The Ukrainian troops are often looked down upon – again the success of Russian propaganda, but they are very experienced and they are capable of fortifying their positions in all the territories,” he said.
“I also believe that the battles over control of the Black Sea will intensify – Ukraine badly needs access to it so safely transport its goods. And the marine defence capabilities it has recently received are significant and, thence, the prognosis,” A. Butkevičius prognosticates.
To the remark that Ukraine’s biggest donor, the United States, cast doubt
on the necessity of allotting a new funding, the former Lithuanian Defence minister responded: “Do not forget the country is in the (presidential) election cycle. America will not leave Ukraine sliding alone on ice. I am sure of that.”
As 2024 nears, in the US, the transfer of military hardware to Ukraine is at its lowest point since the start of the conflict, and Senate Republicans have blocked a 110.5 billion USD emergency spending bill for new security assistance. Opposition to more aid from Republicans is growing under House Speaker Mike Johnson, as well as reliable Ukraine supporters like Sen. Lindsey Graham who are determined to tie further aid to increases in border security.
Fewer inclined to donate for Ukraine
Information fatigue. This is how Lithuanian residents relate to the content published on social networks about Russia’s war in Ukraine. Although the war remains among the most relevant topics for the population, interest in it decreased by 12 percentage points during the year, according to a survey conducted in November commissioned by the communication agency Idea prima.
According to the survey conducted by the market research and technology company Synopticom, the most popular content on social networks for Lithuanian residents is politics and world events (40%), food and cooking (38%), social current events and
information about Russia’s war in Ukraine shared the third place (25% each).
A year ago, in 2022 in October, according to the data of an identical survey, the attention of social network users to the war in Ukraine was much higher: 37% were interested in this topic, and 42% were interested in politics and world events. respondents. Meanwhile, interest in food and cooking was in third place and only 30% were interested. of those interviewed.
According to the survey, those looking for news about the war in Ukraine prefer television, news portals and social networks. However, during the year, the choice of television has increased (from 30% in 2022 to 34% this year), while that of social networks has decreased (from 25% last year to 20% this year).
The declining interest in the biggest war raging in Europe this century also reflects the desire of Lithuanian residents to actively contribute to the support of Ukraine. According to the survey, 50% would contribute with financial support, three percent less than in October 2022.
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