Ilona Bērziņa, BNN
There is no room left for doubt that the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) will enter Evikas Siliņa’s government and will play an important role in it. Although neither the prime minister candidate nor her represented political party see it or want to admit it, ZZS has already outplayed New Unity (JV).
The proposal to include a special condition in the coalition agreement to reduce the influence of US-sanctioned [ex-Mayor of Ventspils] Aivars Lembergs is a smoke screen, one only the most naive of people would believe.
JV Saeima faction vice-chairman Edmunds Jurēvics’ statement that “Evika Siliņa has publicly said that if any minister’s actions show any signs of working to the advantage of illegitimate interests or interests of certain people, especially ones under sanctions, the prime minister is prepared the use her rights to dismiss such a person” (Delfi TV, Kāpēc, 26.08.23) seems more like an attempt to distract residents and demonstrate a strict position where there is none.
The proposal from the Combined List (AS) to create come form of supervisory-consultative institution that will maintain control seems as amusing – was there even such a suggestion or not. Lembergs’ desire to talk about all the processes taking place in the country and also beyond its borders is generally known, and who truly knows if there are political interests or just PR behind all that?
Any deputy in any municipality can speak out about education and healthcare reforms, development of regions, co-financing for municipal budgets, borrowing from the state budget, the need for European co-financing in this or that project. It is a different topic altogether if such a person’s opinions are
perceived by people in politics as instructions to follow.
For example, on the 13th of September the Constitutional Court will decide on multiple sea port reform-related topics and their compliance with the Constitution. It is not excluded that in the event of a specific decision the Saeima will have to review legislative acts related to the reform.
Does anyone actually believe Lembergs will not have any interests related to Ventspils Freeport and ZZS, as one of the parties that submitted constitutional complaints, will refrain from submitting any proposals for legislative act amendments? Who can say for certain where Lembergs’ personal interests and where Ventspils’ interests are?
The authors of the idea to expand the coalition agreement seem to have forgotten about one significant nuance – Lembergs is the chairman of For Latvia and Ventspils (LuV) political party. Although representatives of this party Gundars Daudze and Jānis Vucāns were elected to the 14th Saeima from candidate list of ZZS, LuV is a legitimate partner of this party. This is why by inviting ZZS to join the new coalition, JV has opened the doors for LuV as well. No one has cancelled meetings of ZZS board and faction, and there is no need for Lembergs to participate in meetings personally to bring his opinion to the masses.
Because LuV has not only a board chairman, but also the board itself. Some member could be delegated to voice the party’s opinion on any topic. Who among JV is interested in LuV not having any free thought and an equals sign drawn between Lembers’ and his party’s opinions?
If this is not political leverage then what is?
So far it is unclear if Evikas Siliņa’s future coalition could include ZZS, potentially AS, and either the National Alliance (NA) or Progressive Party (PRO). Looking at what the prime minister candidate said around mid-August, she considers a core consisting of JV, ZZS and PRO a viable option. This coalition would have 52 votes in the Saeima.
However, as noted by NA leader Raivis Dzintars, “the presence of PRO in the government would weaken “Unity’s” national wing, and will strengthen cosmopolitan and ultra-liberal trends. […] The main objective of ZZS at the moment is entering the government at any cost. This is why they will agree with conditions the National Alliance or the Combined List would otherwise refuse.”
Let’s not forget that the “marriage” between JV and PRO in the government was made all the more difficult by these two parties’ conflict in Riga City Council. As a result of this conflict, PRO were cast out in the opposition. They continue blaming JV of wasting the budget. JV, on the other hand, now holds a grudge. It is possible this little scuffle could be put to rest in the name of forming a new coalition. But sooner or later it will surface at the government table – both Riga City Council’s new chairman Vilnis Ķirsis and Riga City Council’s Progressive faction leader Mārtiņš Kossovičs are both very influential in their respective parties.
Perhaps in this case it would be a better idea for JV to “sit together” with NA? It would be more beneficial to them purely arithmetically – both parties together with ZZS would have 55 votes. But this scenario is unlikely.
Rigards Kols (NA) said during Krišjānis Kariņš’s term that the paths of “white bears” [nationalists] and “penguins” [progressives] never cross each other. This is why there is no chance of the new coalition having five parties. This is why it is more likely Evika Siliņa’s team could be joined by AS, even though the party’s leaders made it clear they do not want to work with Aivars Lembergs.
However, the general rhetoric has changed recently – both ZZS and AS politicians now claim the two parties do not have any mutual conflicts. The problem is the potential of Aivars Lembergs’ very name causing potential risks for national security.
Is there a possibility that AS could “abandon ship” when it comes to government formation and start strongly supporting Kariņš’s proposed “three-legged stool” approach – JV, NA and AS? This is a possibility. Especially considering the request from AS to pause negotiations until Wednesday. This party makes no secret that the discussions of the conditions to push Lembergs as far away from the government is just PR. Quoting Minister of Environment Protection and Regional Development Māris Sprindžuks, “this is already ZZS’ government, so let Lembergs sit there and then we’ll see the truth for what it is” (lsm.lv, 28.08. 23).
Basically we’ve ended up in a situation when JV’s enormous want to create a government in the near future creates risks of instability. But there isn’t a lot of time left until the 15th of October, when the state budget project will need to be submitted to the Saeima.
Also read: Combined List party asks for a pause in government formation talks in Latvia