Energy expert warns: power network should be disconnected from Russia, but prices will go up

The decision by Baltic States to de-synchronise from Russian-controlled “BRELL” group is a very correct step, but to little attention is provided to how this will influence the prices of electricity in Latvia and Baltic region, said AJ Power manager Roberts Samtiņš in an expanded interview.
Currently Baltic States are committed to disconnecting from BRELL by the year 2025. This network connects them with Russia and Belarus. Latvian, Lithuania and Estonian electricity distribution system operators Augstsprieguma tīkls, Litgrid and Elering signed an agreement in August on the synchronisation of Baltic States’ power networks with so-called continental European networks in February 2025.
[Following the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war in February 2022, Ukraine rushed to disconnect from the aggressor country’s united energy system, which is internationally known as IPS/UPS, and connected to continental Europe’s networks. Moldova disconnected from Russia’s energy network as well. Europe’s united energy system is the biggest in the world and unites territories with more than 600 million people. – BNN]
Samtiņš said Augstsprieguma tīkls is still looking at how it will happen between all three Baltic States. One of the scenarios may include reducing imports of electricity from Scandinavia. For example, a single inter-connection between Finland and Baltic States carries 700 MW of electricity – if this cable is damaged and the supply of power is cut, Latvia will need to up its generation of electricity by the same volume.
“This is why, it is likely this will mean reduced import capacity for a period of time, because we will not be able to replace it and up the generation of electricity by 700 MW. This means electricity prices may go up. It could also increase consumption of natural gas, because it may become necessary to operate thermal power plants even more,” said Samtiņš. He also stressed that

it is unknown what kind of provocations Russia could potentially use.

“As we have seen, Russia doesn’t care what happens in their country as long as it hurts their neighbouring countries. In an attempt to interfere with Baltic States, their actions result in de-synchronisation speeding up. Technically it is not a simple process, but there could still be provocations from this side as well. Even in this case it is possible prices could go up. This is why we need to review our country’s energy system,” allowed Samtiņš.
He stressed that it is because of this reason Baltic States have to invest into their energy generation output on their own. If countries rely on cheap imports from other countries, it could end very badly. At the same time, Samtiņš stressed he sees no reasons why Baltic States might not be technologically prepared to disconnect from BRELL in 2025.
As previously reported, the agreement Baltic States have with Russia and Belarus on BRELL provides for its automatic extension every February if none of the consignees announce the discontinuation of their participation in this agreement half a year before the next extension of the agreement.
“Together with our partners we have agreed on actions and dates to disconnect from the Russian system and connect to the continental Europe’s synchronised zone. For the first time operators of all three countries have taken tangible commitment to perform synchronisation in a specific period of time – February 2025,” said Litgrid CEO Rokas Masiulis after the signing of the joint Latvian, Lithuanian and Estonian electricity distribution system operators’ agreement in August.
In 2018 Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia signed an agreement to de-synchronise their power networks from the Russian power network. The recently signed agreement means it this de-synchronisation is to happen one year earlier.
According to the European Commission, the synchronisation of Baltic State’s power networks is a political and financial priority, one that has received financing of more than EUR 1.2 billion.
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