Ilona Bērziņa, BNN
Latvia’s President Edgars Rinkēvičs has drawn a line past which New Unity (JV) with Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš in charge will not be able to fool around any more. The president has given the head of the government until mid-August to make it clear – who and in what composition the government will continue working.
Will the “marriage” with Combined List (AS) and National Alliance (NA) last? Will these parties end up being thrown out of the government boat to make way for JV’s new partners – Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) and Progressive party (PRO)?
Talks about the possible government coalition changes or replacement of existing partners in favour of ZZS and PRO have continued since the end of May, when the Saeima elected Rinkēvičs as Latvia’s president. The speculations about Kariņš’s allegedly wanting to expand the government with ZZS and PRO in exchange for them voting for Rinkēvičs have been around for about as long.
PRO gave their vote for him only in the third stage of presidential elections, after their own candidate – Elīna Pinto – dropped out. But let’s not be naive – from the moment she was revealed as a presidential candidate, Pinto had no chance of winning. The party likely knew very well their ten votes will be a good tool for political barter, and they weren’t wrong.
Krišjānis Kariņš and the masters of political intrigue – New Unity – ended up between between Scylla and Charybdis*, because it was equally dangerous to admit there being some behind the scenes deal and not comply with it. This is where the roots of manipulative claims – the more votes in the coalition, the faster reforms will go and that the coalition’s expansion would bring happiness and welfare tomorrow, etc. – really come from.
About fresh blood and “noodles on Kariņš’s ears”
It is possible that the government’s work could become more productive if injected with “fresh blood”. It is also possible the inability to work together, mutual disputes and ambitions could only increase as a result. The call for harmony and rejection of any seat in the name of “reform ideas and objectives”, which is so passionately suggested by Kariņš in the public space, will sooner or later result in the expanded coalition bursting like a soap bubble. On top of that,
It will likely happen because of the Latvian PM’s own arrogance
and unwillingness to listen to his colleagues in the government.
If the head of the government does not accept coalition partners’ word that they will not accept any partnership with ZZS at least while this party has the criminally prosecuted and internationally sanctioned person is pulling strings behind this party, then it will not be a very good signal both domestically or internationally.
Kariņš’s continued chanting of the mantra that no one not elected to the Saeima will be allowed at the government table sounds very naive and unconvincing.
The “noodles on the PM’s ears” about ZZS distancing itself from Aivars Lembergs is another interesting point. This topic is not popular, because the aforementioned person did not participate in the party union’s decision-making. Seriously? Then does Lembergs’ party For Latvia and Ventspils was doing during the decision-making process? Do they simply sit outside while the big boys make decisions?!
In this regard it worth mentioning the words spoken by once Latvia’s PM and current Minister of the Interior Māris Kučinskis, that Lembergs’ current influence is even larger and reaches farther than it did during his rule.
The shadow of Lembergs’ presence will not go unnoticed
The rhetoric of parties rarely stays the same after elections. However, Saeima ZZS faction leader Viktors Valainis did say at the congress of Latvian Farmers Union held on the 1st of April: “The government has no ambitions or vision for the country’s development, ministers are boring and unnoticeable in their work, and PM Krišjānis Kariņš’s statements make it seem as though he lives in a different country altogether”.
Does the PM still live in a different country now that the party has a way to get into the government? Does Aivars Lembergs still think the idea to have radio and TV provide programmes only in Latvian language does not comply with Latvia’s national interests and that “the goal behind it is splitting Latvia’s society even more, deepening the country into a state of dual-community, creating internal strife and danger,” and do Kariņš and his ruling coalition thereby implement a hostile policy towards Latvia?
But this is exactly the opinion Lembergs voiced almost one and a half months before presidential elections. It is no surprise statements like that were like honey for Russian propaganda, but one does need to ask – whose interests were voiced?
The topic of Lembergs and ZZS is viewed in the context of the government’s expansion or replacement of coalition partners. Unfortunately, nothing is that simple. The bad news is that Lembergs’ name now holds international infamy. If anyone needs any reminders, the main purpose of US sanctions was limiting the infamous Ventspils politician’s influence.
Sanctions still remain in effect.
This is why, regardless if Kariņš likes it or not, but Lembergs’ shadow over political processes will be noticed and judged by our western partners.
About the political process and the Gordian Knot
Latvia’s President Edgars Rinkēvičs is right about one thing – politicians have to stop arguing with each other and have to start working together. The Song Celebration is over, NATO summit in Vilnius is over, and it is finally time to set things right.
Will the PM continue trying the lead the government in his usual elegant manner and reprimand some minister for failing some reform? Or will there be a new government in which Kariņš takes the seat of the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the seat of the head of the government is given to some other JV pillar (perhaps Arvils Ašeradens)? Will Krišjānis Kariņš could be selected as a replacement for Valdis Dombrovskis in the European Commission?
Also – in the end will the newly-elected President Edgars Rinkēvičs accept a government that has ZZS in it along with the entire toxic baggage with criminally prosecuted and internationally sanctioned Lembergs?
Egils Levits, who announced shortly before the end of his term as president, that he would not approve a PM that is prepared to create a coalition with ZZS while this party has ties with Aivars Lembergs. “Not with my hands,” said Levits.
Whereas Latvia’s new President Edgars Rinkēvičs with a truly diplomatic spirit refuses to comment this mess, because he does not want to influence the political process. All this is not unlike the Gordian Knot that will be very difficult to cut.
*Monsters from Ancient Greek mythology that dwell on the cliffs on opposite sides of the Strait of Messina – between Sicily and Calabria – and attack sailors. Traversing this strait meant almost certain death. The phrase is used to describe a choice of a lesser of two evils.
Also read: Latvia’s new president is more people-oriented, expert says