Linas Jegelevičius
In the Vilnius NATO summit, the Baltics, including Lithuania, have received new security guarantees to be followed by concrete actions soon, yet Ukraine has not been offered the coveted prize – NATO membership.
Against the picture, the word ‘historical’ describing takeaways from the summit may not be proper, however, not for Valdas Tutkus, general and former Chief of Defence of Lithuania.
“To me, the NATO summit in Vilnius was truly historical. Of course, far from all agree with this formulation, because there are those for whom the most important thing is not the responsibility of NATO, the perception of the weight of the Alliance’s obligations, but the desire to see it “beautiful”, attentive to all the political populists’ demands, which, if things would go awry, could bring NATO members and the USA, our main ally, and most importantly, Lithuania, into the III World War,” the military analyst said.
During the 11th to 12th of July, Vilnius became home to 48 foreign delegations – about 2500 people and 40 heads of state,
including US President Joe Biden – who participated in the summit.
Asked about the summit’s takeaways, V. Tutkus said: “First, the Alliance takes its obligations to its members very seriously. Article 5 was and remains the cornerstone of the organisation. Second, unlike some other international organisations, NATO did not become a political organisation without serious commitments. Third, NATO is not just talking, but it is acting to be fully prepared for the implementation of Article 5, if necessary.”
According to him, the fact that Ukraine was not invited to become a member of NATO shows how seriously Article 5 obligations are taken.
“Apparently, this should be the answer to NATO skeptics, “that no one will defend”.
Because, if it were so, Ukraine would be accepted politically, very nicely and solemnly, but it would be difficult to expect real actions and the consequences (of the decision) could be unpredictable,” V. Tutkus accentuated to BNN.
He pointed to a deal on new regional defence plans reached in Vilnius on the late evening of the 10th of July ahead of the NATO summit.
In the previous plan, the approach was that the Baltic countries should try to hold off a hypothetical Russian offensive until allied reinforcements can arrive to help them.
The new plans, approved on the eve of the summit, aim to ensure that Nato is ready to fight back immediately.
“The new plans envisage a reaction from the first minute of an attack and a first attacked meter of soil of the NATO territory,” V. Tutkus said.
Moreover, he says, allies will also commit more troops under the direct control of NATO’s top military command.
According to the general, this would reduce the risk of delays in political decisions on troop allocations. Germany would play a key role in Lithuania’s defence plans.
Vilnius expects a plan for the stationing of Germany’s brigade in Lithuania to be ready by the end of September, according to Defence Minister Arvydas Anušauskas.
“The joint task group is starting its work,” Anušauskas told LRT Radio on Thursday, the 13th of July. “It is summer now and there can be some delays, but we hope to have it all in place by the end of September.”
German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius told reporters at the NATO summit in Vilnius earlier this week that
Berlin expected to have a plan for deploying the brigade in Lithuania ready by the fourth quarter of this year.
Pistorius said earlier that a 4,000-strong German brigade would be permanently stationed in Lithuania.
But V. Tutkus notes Lithuania was once again politely reminded that NATO cannot force its members (Germany – L. J.) to deploy military units in one place or another.
“It is a bilateral matter to implement the agreed NATO strategy. So that jostling with Germany, accusations, and the so-called pressure and intimidation that NATO will decide and “then you will see…” was nothing but a demonstration of their lack of maturity not only for Germany but also for all members of the Alliance,” the analyst said.
After NATO leaders meeting in Vilnius endorsed a communiqué promising Ukraine membership of the alliance, many analysts started immediately questioning it: does it show a breakthrough, or is it merely an emulation of what some say the fateful Bucharest declaration almost two decades ago?
Margarita Šešelgytė, director of the Vilnius University Institute of International Relations and Political Science (TSPMI), was quick to call the communiqué “water”.
“According to the way the communiqué is framed, there is room for a repeat [of the Bucharest scenario]
and worse, because today the conditions have changed,” she told LRT.lt
Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevičius, who attended the fateful Bucharest meeting, now an ambassador-at-large, says that the Vilnius declaration should have provided assurances that “we will help to the full extent, as much as is necessary, politically, with weapons and in every other way, and when the territory of Ukraine has been liberated […] we will immediately discuss the issue of an invitation.” “But it is a pity that NATO has not again shown the courage, the leadership that it could have shown”, the ambassador told LRT Radio.
In his words, Lithuania remained the only nation in NATO to advocate for Ukraine’s early inclusion in the alliance.
As a reminder, the Alliance agreed at the summit to remove the Membership Action Plan (MAP) requirement for Ukraine, decided to set up a NATO-Ukraine Council, and approved a multiannual program of assistance to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Although Ukraine did not receive its ultimate prize – an invitation to become a NATO member – the support of NATO members exceeding 150 billion euros is very substantial, most analysts agree.
Besides, on the first day of the summit, the new Ukraine-NATO Council, which will purportedly mean that Kyiv and the alliance will take decisions “as equals”, rather than dealing with each of the bloc’s countries individually, was established.
US President Joe Biden delivered a public speech at Vilnius University as the NATO summit concluded on Wednesday.
“I’m proud to call Lithuania a friend, partner, and ally,” he told Lithuanians in Vilnius.
And speaking of Lithuania’s perhaps the most important takeaway from the summit is that so many decision-makers, including the leaders of the Alliance and the members of their delegations, saw and experienced it firsthand.
“I think we won’t be able to host another event of this scale, one promoting Lithuania so hugely. We often hear that Lithuania needs to be presented to the world. This is exactly what happened in Vilnius,” V. Tutkus emphasised.