Ilona Bērziņa, BNN
Latvian Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš’s insistence in continuing coalition expansion talks with the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) and Progressive party and refusal to listen to coalition partners’ objections does not affirm his political maturity, rather his eagerness to stress his own importance in Latvia’s political life and, perhaps, implement some kinds of backstage deal.
In a certain sense, we have ended up in a state of check, as they say in chess. Basic arithmetic shows that the government is still able to continue working in its current composition, where New Unity (JV), Combined List (AS) and National Alliance (NA) have 54 votes, whereas the possible coalition with JV, ZZS and PRO would give them 52 votes.
His initiative to form a mega-coalition that would bravely implement all the reforms that have been in discussion so far, is, mildly putting it, questionable. If three political parties are unable to agree on practical implementation of reforms, what are the guarantees five coalition partners that have many disagreements between them will be able to agree on anything?
About the secret agreement
The most painful is the topic of Aivars Lembergs’ influence over ZZS, which Latvia’s President Egils Levits called “oligarchic influence”, adding that he would never nominate for the PM’s seat a person who decides to form a coalition with this party. A different topic is the policy that will be employed by Latvia’s next President Edgars Rinkēvičs, who will take office on the 8th of July.
So far he has been very evasive about his plans. In his interview to LTV programme Aizliegtais paņēmiens,
Rinkēvičs did not clarify his position.
All he said is that “clarity about the ruling coalition’s ability to continue working as is or in a four or five-party composition, or even some other three-party coalition may yet come. These topics are open.” This is why it is possible President Rinkēvičs may find it acceptable to have ZZS in the coalition even though Aivars Lembers and For Latvia and Ventspils may play a role in it.
It should be reminded that without the two decisive votes, Rinkēvičs would not have been elected. This begs the question – was there or was there not some backstage agreement associated with the presidential elections. If there was one, what was the price?
About scapegoats, circus and desert affairs
The topic of ZZS and PRO blocking Ainārs Šlesers’ and Aleksejs Rosļikovs’ initiated no-confidence vote against Kariņš’s government is another curious topic. Although before the vote it was clear Kariņš would pass the vote, the signal itself is interesting. What I mean is what ZZS faction leader Viktors Valainis said – that ZZS leaned towards this act because “the government is working very inefficiently”. However, if a ship does not follow a set course and the crew’s work is unsupervised,
then the captain should be the first one to be cast from the bridge.
Meanwhile the PM continues his usual practice of looking for “the guilty” to pin all the sins onto (and throw from the government). It is worth mentioning that the practice of intimidating colleagues in the government with a simple phrase “if you don’t like it, the door is over there” has become a habit of Kariņš’s second government experience.
Let’s not forget his approach to Minister of Health Līga Meņģelsone for “constant begging for more money” and the invitation for ministers who are not prepared to implement reforms to resign. On the other hand, however, there’s been no word about Kariņš’s own ideas – specifically the implementation of the economic transformation and more rapid development of companies. Aside from talking, talking and more talking, society has yet to see any tangible results. Instead NA and AS are branded as scapegoats, because they, according to AS, are not eager to join this circus.
The PM, meanwhile, continues playing the very dangerous game called “who is in charge here?”, which is something that can be seen from his recently experienced shock – how can coalition partners not respond to the PM’s invitation to discuss problems? In reality there is only one problem, and it is his insistence on getting at least ZZS into the coalition.
Speculations and the matter of time
NA and AS have both announced their readiness to work on resolving the five identified problems (school network arrangement, improvement of health care situation, labour force issue, stock exchange listing of state-owned capital companies, social issues). At the same time, they want an end to the ongoing political instability. The only one pretending not to notice the tense atmosphere is the head of the government.
This implies talks about Kariņš’s plans to take a cushy seat in Brussels in the near future, considering that Latvian current European Commission member’s term ends on the 31st of October 2024, are not empty words.
The second version is that New Unity would gladly do a switch – elect Minister of Finance Arvils Ašeradens as the new PM and have Kariņš take the vacant post of Minister of Foreign Affairs.
Immediately after the no-confidence vote, JV’s delegated Saeima deputy Jānis Patmalnieks told “Spried ar Delfi” that none of these speculations have any weight to them. This begs the question – why wasn’t this announced by Kariņš himself or Saeima’s JV faction leader Ainars Latkovskis? Is it truly because if this version was true it would be easier to sacrifice Patmalnieks to the misled and angry mob after all is said and done?
So far it seems that until the 11th-12th July NATO summit in Vilnius there are unlikely to be any sharp turns in the ruling coalition. AS and NA will continue demanding clarity about the future of the existing coalition. Kariņš is very likely to continue meeting with ZZS and PRO, demonstrating a surprising degree of like-mindedness with them. ZZS, as BNN was previously told by politologist Filips Rajevskis, has no reason to rush… The internal problems of the government have grown to a level when its collapse is a matter of time.
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