A year before the European Parliament (EP) elections, public opinion polls show that the informal coalition of the center-right European People’s Party (EPP), the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and the liberal Renew Europe will retain the majority in the next EP convocation.
The evidence of it lays in the analysis carried out by the data collection platform Europe Elects. At the same time, it is predicted that the majority of the coalition will become smaller. Survey data show that the European People’s Party could win 161 of the 705 MEP seats. Currently, the group has 177 members. S&D, which currently has 143 seats in the EP, could gain one more mandate, while Renew Europe could lose 11 mandates – it would be represented by 90 MPs in the new EP convocation.
The national conservative European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group could increase its representation from the current 66 seats to 82, while the right-wing Identity and Democracy group could increase its seats from 62 to 66.
The faction of the Greens and the European Free Alliance currently has 72 MPs, but it could have only 48 seats in the new EP convocation. At the same time, analysts point out that the performance of environmentalists and regional parties in elections is usually better than polls predict.
On the other hand, for the Radical Left faction, traditionally, the real election result is worse than predicted in the polls. Analysis of polls shows that the left-wing extremists could win 53 mandates in the new EP convocation, which would be 13 less than at present.
The number of deputies not belonging to groups could increase by three – up to 50 mandates.
[Representatives of the Unity Sandra Kalniete, Dace Melbārde, and Inese Vaidere work in the group of the European People’s Party (Christian Democrats); The group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats includes Nils Ušakovs (social democratic party Harmony) and Andris Ameriks (Honor to serve Riga); Ivars Ijabs (For Development/Par!) is involved in the political group Renew Europe; Roberts Zīle (National Alliance) represents the European Conservative and Reformist Group; the leader of the Russian Union of Latvia, Tatjana Ždanoka, is a member of parliament who does not belong to political groups – BNN.]
The EP elections will be held next year from the 6th to the 9th of June.
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Current informal coalition will retain the majority in EP elections
