Ilona Bērziņa, BNN
Which presidential candidate – Edgars Rinkēvičs or Uldis Pīlēns – will receive the majority of support in the Saeima on the 31st of May? This intrigue will be resolved tomorrow. At the same time, it will be a test of strength for their respective parties – New Unity (JV) and Combined List (AS). The third candidate – Progressive Party’s Elīnai Pinto – practically has no chance of securing 51% support in the parliament.
BNN interviews politologist Filips Rajevskis about this month’s hottest topic – the presidential elections in Latvia.
What are the chances of a president being elected on Wednesday? Will political parties be able to agree?
-I think they will. There is only one candidate with next to chances. The other two are solid.
This candidate with next to no chance, do you mean Elīna Pinto?
-Yes.
Speculations about which candidate turns out stronger – Edgars Rinkevičs or Uldis Pīlēns – are becoming hotter and hotter. Making predictions in such important topics has always been a thankless task. Nevertheless, considering the distribution of power, what could be the result?
-It is clear Elīna Pinto will drop out in the first vote, because the Progressive Faction has only ten deputies in the Saeima. The question is how will other parties act? The second vote is the decisive one – it will show who will remain for the third round.
Right now it seems Edgars Rinkēvičs has a better chance, because so far no one except AS and Šlesers has promised support to Uldis Pīlēns. AS and Latvia in First Place (LPV) do not have enough votes together (AS has 15 and LPV has 9 in the Saeima) to compete with New Unity (26). The vote will show who has support.
If neither candidate receives the necessary 51 votes in the second round either, and I believe this is exactly what will happen, the third round will be organised. It will have one candidate everyone will vote for. Important negotiations will happen over the second and third round. The final decision will be made then. Either one person will become president or the Saeima will go for another round of elections in June.
Currently there are many speculations about possible political deals between various parties. One variant suggests the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) may receive a place in the coalition in exchange for voting for Edgars Rinkevičs. At the same time, it is possible ZZS may vote for Uldis Pīlēns instead.
The National Alliance (NA), meanwhile, has announced that the party will not listen to any ultimatums even if it means NA is forced to leave the coalition and the government collapses as a result. How serious is all this?
-A coalition without JV is unlikely, and even then it will be no more than imitation of work. If AS and NA were successful in blocking the entry of the Progressive Party to the coalition, they won’t be able to block it again – because
NA is afraid of being left out of the coalition.
If an agreement with ZZS is reached, they might enter a coalition that consists of JV, ZZS and AS or JV, ZZS and NA. Both coalition would have enough votes. I believe on one hand NA wants to fight for its place this way. On the other hand they also understand that it it an individual discipline – to fight for your place in the next government.
Respectively, everyone is prepared to support heir chosen candidate in public rhetoric and demonstrate a spine, but in reality no one is prepared to leave the government…
-Yes. If there is a third vote with only Rinkēvičs is left and NA and AS say they will not vote, it will be a very bad signal for the entire coalition. It’s not budget vote, failing to approve which results in the government collapsing.
However, if the Minister of Foreign Affairs Rinkēvičs, who is the most popular politician with a rather clear position for our country’s foreign policy and opposition of Russia, remains as the only remaining candidate and NA does not vote for him merely because of spite or wish for a second round of elections, it may lead to the PM stepping down, the government falling and us having to start over.
If there are only two candidates to vote for, the opposition plays a large role, but when there is only one candidate, it is coalition stability issue. The same applies to Uldis Pīlēns. If he’s the only left for the final vote, I don’t see any particular reasons why the coalition could agree on him. The situation is not simple, and the complexity of these relations we can already see in mutual statements from politicians.
Latvia’s current President Egils Levits he pointed out that “on such an important issue as the election of the President of Latvia pro-Kremlin and oligarchic circles may become co-legislators” and “this will make it difficult for him to represent Latvia’s interests and maintain a full dialogue of trust with our allies”.
So what is it all about: is it recommended to elect the president using only vote from “correct” deputies because otherwise “Europe won’t understand us”?
-The Constitution states the president stands above normal party politics. The good news is that
we cannot say Pīlēns will depend on votes from the parties that voted for him as president,
because his re-election will be a topic for the next Saeima to tackle. If he is elected, it does not mean he will do some orders or take on commitments. He will be able to calmly complete his policy and not have to think about them, because deputies have to ways to force anything on the president elected using their votes.
NA does not exclude the possibility of proposing their own candidate if no one is elected in the first round. Is it realistic or nothing more than political rhetoric?
-This is empty speculation. Egils Levits dropped out a good amount of time in advance, and NA had time to select someone else, but they didn’t. I think this is more rhetoric.
However, in the political backstage NA may announce Minister of Defence Ināra Mūrniece.
-She was mentioned as a possible candidate, but NA had all the opportunities to announce her immediately after Levits dropped out.
Is it possible the government’s composition could change if Rinkēvičs is elected with votes from ZZS?
-If ZZS supports him, this opens the doors for their potential participation in the next government. However, if an agreement is reached in regards to letting ZZS join the government, then, no matter how this issue is played off, JV needs to benefit from it somehow. If Rinkēviču is elected with votes from AS, JV and ZZS, it can be considered an indication for the next coalition.
But what about the red lines in regards to ZZS’ ties with Aivars Lembergs? Is everything still in place or not?
-Here we need to keep in mind the conflict between Krišjānis Kariņš and Uldis Pīlēns. Specifically the former’s statement that the topic of government formation and the government’s work will be discussed only with politicians elected to the Saeima and candidates. This prevented Uldis Pīlēns from taking part in negotiations.
I believe this may apply to Lembergs as well to make sure he doesn’t participate in the government-formation process and meetings of he coalition.
This way he is not allowed on the front, and Kariņš does not have to sit down with Lembergs at the same table.
The might come to an agreement. On the other hand, ZZS have yet to drop Lembergs entirely. This simply carries this topic to a grey zone. The other issue is Lembergs’ reaction. I allow there could be some agreement, because it is unlikely for Kariņš and JV to sit down with Lembergs and compose a new government.
But it is not necessary to sit down in person. Lembergs has always had backstage influence, and it is unlikely it has disappeared anywhere.
-He’s had backstage influence in the past, and he will still have it in the foreseeable future. As for the current situation, a lot depends on his own announcements in regards to activities in Latvia’s politics.
How high are the chances for Kariņš’s government to remain unchanged after the 31st of May?
-It’s not that simple. The main topic on everyone’s mind in the media, society and political stage in general right now is Latvia’s fundamental backwardness from the rest of the Baltic States and the inability to gather for normal economic growth. This topic will not go anywhere regardless of the president elected in the end.
Presidential elections will not solve this issue – only the coalition can do it. If no progress is made on this topic, JV will have very big problems in the next elections.
Also read: Latvia in First Place party decides to vote for Uldis Pīlēns at upcoming elections