Vladimir Yushkin, head of the Baltic Center for Russian Studies, believes that Russia has already shown its full offensive capacity, and Moscow is facing a power struggle, writes ERR News.
Indrek Kannik, head of Estonia’s International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS), said that the planned major offensive had been going on all winter, and that the Russians had made little progress in Bakhmut, while making virtually no progress elsewhere.
Yushkin pointed out that Russia has already lost the strategic war, and what is happening now is rather an introduction to the power struggle in post-Putin Russia. Colonels and majors are furious with Putin and the generals. Yushkin calls them national patriots. “We are witnessing the formation of the post-Putin authority today. Prigozhin’s interview is future-oriented. He understands that there is a political crisis brewing in Russia in the wake of a military defeat in whatever form.
He will pick a side and have an important role in that crisis,”
predicts the expert.
He noted that private military groups will be important in the looming crisis, and pointed to Russian Deputy Defense Minister Mikhail Mizintsev joining Wagner’s group. Yushkin said that Dmitry Medvedev and Dmitry Peskov will also pick sides, while Mizintsev has already become Prigozhin’s deputy.
Another important factor will be the huge masses of soldiers who will return from the war, and Yushkin added that he does not see how post-war Russia could be formed by democratic forces – they will most likely be national patriots who will start reckoning with ideological opponents. The expert also suggested that Russian state officials and the business elite are already preparing to flee Russia.