Documents leaked from the Kremlin reaffirm observed attempts by Russia to reinforce influence over Baltic States.
According to classified documents accessed by Baltic investigative journalism centre Re:Baltica, Russia had planned to create new NGOs to support Russia’s policy and prevent NATO from gaining a foothold in the region,
prevent transition to education in Latvian language only and prevent Latvia’s disconnection of Russia’s power network, provide Russian language with official language status. These are but some of the plans listed in the leaked documents as strategically important in Latvia until the year 2030.
According to Re:Baltica, the leaked classified documents were written by offices of Russian President’s Administration responsible for Kremlin’s activities of influence in Baltic States.
Two years ago the Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) allowed these offices of the Russian President’s Administration provide “recommendations in the Kremlin’s strategic decision-making processes even though they are not involved in them.” The leaked documents confirm this.
Certain offices provided strategic advice and developed them, Re:Baltica reports.
Documents were allegedly composed before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – in summer of autumn of 2021. They detail the main objectives and potential threats to their implementation in Baltic States (similarly to the previously leaked documents about plans in Belarus and Moldova).
Each document has three parts – political, military and security; economics and trade; humanitarian goals.
They also have specific time frames: short (by 2022), medium (by 2025) and long-term (2030).
Re:Baltica reports that the documents do not mention any specific people or organisations that were planned to be used to implement any specific strategies. When asked if SAB has information on any political forces that may be involved, the service had this to say: “Kremlin’s strategy before and after the war is forming a dialogue with the powers interested in it, and economic benefits are often the lead motif.”
The document indicates that, for example,
by the year 2025, Russia had planned to prevent NATO from gaining a foothold in Latvia. The country also planned to form relations with leaders from moderately centrist political parties supported by Latvians and Russians.
Russia also planned to open a Russia-founded school in Latvia by the year 2025. This school was to become a centre for language and culture.
Russia also wanted to protect Russian citizens and state property from sanctions and confiscation.
In a long-term perspective Russia had planned a mass non-self-government problem’s solution in Latvia, Latvia’s participation in a political union with Russia, mutual trade and economic cooperation, as well as establish Russian language as second official language.
Documents also mention that preservation of Soviet monuments played a major part in prevention of glorification of Nazism in Baltic States.
Similar plans were listed in documents in relation to Estonia. For example, Russia planned to form a negative public opinion about NATO’s presence, establish strong pro-Russian influence groups in among the political, military and business elite in the country.
Additionally, Russia had planned to form a beneficial information background in Estonia, increase exports from Russia, and increase transport communication level in border regions.
In Lithuania Russia planned to create conditions under which Lithuanian government would find the growing presence of NATO as problematic.
Russia wanted to “restore constructive relations” with Lithuania. Restoration of relations applied to the military sector as well.
Russia also had plans for the preservation of Russian schools and Soviet monuments in Lithuania as well.
Re:Baltica concluded that although the war ruined many of Russia’s plans in the Baltic States, the country has not refused them.
It was reported that SAB predicted last year Russia would try to at least partially restore the number of spies in its diplomatic offices. SAB also predicted a possible increase of the number of traveling spies.
Last year Russian intelligence services continued aggressive efforts against Western nations, including EU and NATO member states. Their main objective is information collection and various influence operations in order to change Russia’s image in the eyes of Western nations and weaken political elites that are negative towards Russia.
Last year Russian intelligence services’ efforts were mostly dictated by the war in Ukraine. The priority was Western countries’ reaction to Russia’s invasion, including interest for the political reaction and formulation of positions, preparedness to provide support to Ukraine, unity of the international community and coordination of nations’ activities.
Military aid and supplies to Ukraine were and will remain at the top of Russian intelligence services’ priorities.
Russian intelligence services actively worked on following Western nations’ decisions in regards to anti-Russian sanctions last year. Intelligence services have a very important role in creating sanction-circumvention schemes, SAB concluded.
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