Estonian security expert Rainer Saks says that in this phase of the war we can be sure that the use of nuclear weapons is not in Russia’s interests writes the Estonian media ERR News.
Since invading Ukraine, Russia has repeatedly threatened the West with a nuclear attack, but according to Saks, that threat no longer works. He said that it has been effective in the past, and to a large extent, it was the retreat of Western countries in fear of a nuclear war that allowed Russia to invade Ukraine already in 2014, and to continue the aggression in 2022.
Saks also expressed skepticism about German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s willingness to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Scholz’s goal is to get Putin to withdraw the army from Ukraine.
The Estonian security expert pointed out that there is no point in doing so, and more benefit would come from actions that are not publicly announced in advance.
According to Saks, Ukraine mostly uses weapons supplied by the West. Also, Ukraine has received technological assistance for communications and intelligence, but this is usually not mentioned publicly. The expert added that the Leopard tanks promised last week will not arrive on the battlefield earlier than April, because although the Ukrainians know how to deal with tanks, certain operational specifics must be learned. Saks emphasized that the army should be trained and equipped in times of peace, not in war situations, and this is a lesson Estonia should bear in mind.
Regarding Ukraine’s request to also provide it with fighter jets, Saks said that this is a very difficult decision, which is much more difficult to implement than providing tanks. Aircraft are available, but moving, maintaining, and operating them is much more complicated than tanks. Ukraine has no suitable bases and the airfields would have to be rebuilt, which would take many months.
The weather in Ukraine, which is a bit warmer than usual, prevents Russia from using heavy machinery. «If Russia uses more heavy equipment, then the losses will immediately increase. But, Russia’s main problem is still that they lack quality troops,» Saks said, adding that Putin cannot stop the war or admit defeat because that would mean he had to kneel before Russia’s political elite.
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