Linas Jegelevičius
A working parliamentary group, chaired by the Seimas Social Affairs and Labour Committee (SRDK) chairman, Justas Džiugelis, has proposed that parliamentary parties sign «a national agreement», recognizing demographic decline as a national threat.
The working group of the Seimas, the Lithuanian parliament, to solve labour market problems has been active for almost a year. However, the prepared recommendations on long-term demography and migration policy – they were made public at the turn of years – raised eyebrows even of some of Džiugelis’ fellow Conservatives. For many, the wording is just too harsh or even dramatic.
«I hesitate if the words – recognising demographic decline a national threat – would be proper. Of course, I do not deny the importance of the issue – it is really accute, however, I’d rather focus on measures aiming to boost birth rates in the country. Perhaps many still remember that such measures back in 2007-2008 have produced tangible results – more births,» Mindaugas Skritulskas, parliamentarian of the ruling Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD), known colloquially as the Conservatives, told BNN.
The Lithuanian population has shrunk by about 233,000 people over the past decade, the country’s statistics office said a year ago.
Lithuania was home to 2,81 million people as of the 1st of January, 2021, according to the preliminary results of this year’s population census. This is down from 3,043 million in 2011, 3,48 million in 2001, and 3,67 million in 1989.
According to Statistics Lithuania, 42 thousand people left the country in the first of 11 months of 2022.
Following the release of recommendations, Džiugelis and some other legislators, as well as demography pundits discussed the issue in the «Question of the Day” program of «Žinių radio».
Džiugelis pointed out that demographic and labour market problems are related to many reasons and maintained that the Government should prepare a plan to fight demographic challenges.
«On the other hand, in Western democracies, there is no easy recipe for enabling women to give birth – women pursue their dreams, and career prospects, and a modern woman does not necessarily see the birth of a child as her necessity…No social benefits for children or similar money encourage women to give up their dreams. We have to see this reality,» said the chairman of SRDK.
One of the mentioned recommendations relates to the poor health of Lithuanians.
«We should increase the working age of the population and take into account how to bring back Lithuanians who are currently abroad but may be considering the possibility of returning to their native land,» said the politician.
The other recommendation, Džiugelis says, should be focused on improving the conditions of temporary work and residence of foreigners in Lithuania. Yet he emphasized that the task force does not recommend the introduction of cheap labour.
«We focus on attracting young, talented, well-educated, in-demand professionals to the state of Lithuania.
There are two aspects here: one aspect is the bureaucratic burden that makes people not want to come here to work. The other side of the coin is, of course, salaries,» explained the MP.
MP Asta Kubilienė of the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union emphasized while on air on the radio that the main problems causing demographic problems are related to low birth rate and emigration.
«Furthermore, it is said there that the decrease in the number of people poses a threat to the entire fabric of Lithuanian society. It seems to me that these are very important things – after naming the problems, the problems themselves should be solved, and not looking for some saviors who will save us,» Kubilienė said.
According to her, the policies implemented by the current ruling coalition do not prompt a birth rate improvement in the country.
«Let’s look at the situation in Hungary when people who have a third or fourth child pay taxes or people who have a fourth child do not pay taxes at all. There are many such measures, we should follow the path of increasing the birth rate and reducing emigration,» said the MP.
Meanwhile, Kačinskaitė-Urbonienė, a lawmaker of the opposition Labour party, says that such issues, like demography and labour market, should be addressed not through a batch of large-scale recommendations, but by talking live and debating in various formats.
«Too much is focused on the promotion of immigration and too little attention is focused on the fact that we solve demographic issues locally, through a demographic prism, and then, accordingly, labour markets and others. There are ideological and value divides here, where, again, the truth can be born only in discussion. It sounds funny that the recommendation suggests making a national agreement on this when we cannot even have a normal discussion in a small group, a round table to discuss all important issues,» commented I. Kačinskaitė-Urbonienė.
In her view, Džiugelis, who is responsible for organising the work of the group, did not seek to mobilise the members of the group, to find a broad consensus and the best solutions.
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research researcher Dr. Domantas Jasilionis that the population will decrease in the near future in any case – due to a number of reasons.
«Emigration is on the rise again. We talk about immigration, but we cannot keep people in Lithuania. We need not pursue unrealistic goals, but simply to understand that we will decrease, we just need to manage that decrease, to slow it down,» the researcher emphasised.
In his words, the general decrease in the population of Lithuania is happening because of the emptying regions.
He says that flexible and convenient infrastructure, necessary for parents, opportunities to combine work and raising children, and appropriate distribution of responsibilities of father and mother help to solve the mentioned problems.
But for Dainius Kepenis, an opposition lawmaker, the exacerbating issue of poor demography is of a larger picture.
«We are trying to reinvent the bicycle. All we need to do is to see what some Lithuanian luminaries of the interwar era have said and written about it. Let’s remember what our Vydūnas (a Prussian-Lithuanian teacher, poet, humanist, philosopher – L.J.) has written in his highly popular book «The secrets of motherhood and fatherhood» then. Unfortunately, on the whole, parenthood has lost its charm and essence. We’ve given in to the trends of globalism and et cetera. If we do not act now, it will be too late very soon,» the MP warned when speaking to BNN.
Yet, the ruling Coalition will most likely not sign, as suggested, the National Agreement on the Recognition of the Demographic Problem as an Essential Threat to the State and the Appropriate Priority and the Need for Resources in Solving it.
«The 2007-2008 measures entailing financial stimulation for families raising more children were effective and they need be considered again…On the local level, the local municipalities ought to work more actively on assisting young families that return back. For example, the Palanga municipality, where I am from, has decided to return 50 percent of income tax paid by young families in the first year since their comeback» Skritulskas underscored to BNN.
It is predicted that less than two and a half million inhabitants will remain in Lithuania in 2030, and 2 million in 2045.